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Re: stervc post# 22624

Wednesday, 01/13/2021 8:26:26 PM

Wednesday, January 13, 2021 8:26:26 PM

Post# of 24816
TMXN vs Tilray Resolution to Consider…

Important to note is that Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) and Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) are in advanced stages of their merger talks to close early 2021 to become a C$4.8 billion company as indicated within the post below:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=160245150

No way they want this lawsuit with TMXN hanging around stopping this deal from closing. I am confident that both Tilray and Aphria want to get this TMXN out of their books and their ways soon for auditing purposes.

I'm taking the risk that we will see a significant resolution at some point in time in the future soon. Before reading any further though, please understand that it is nothing personal for me against any of the parties on either side. With being a shareholder, I only hope for a peaceful resolution that will help both sides to positively move forward. Within this post, I think I have come up with a resolution as I will explain.

Before I explain that resolution, I think I need to first clear the air on some misinterpretations in my opinion for what was filed within certain Court Dockets within the Pacer database. In short, there was another mediation meeting that was scheduled to be held on Jan 15, 2021 indicated within Court Docket #113, the Mediation Report. This was to grant the motion seeking a brief five (5) business day extension of time in order to allow the parties to meet and confer, and work on and finalize the Pre-Trial Documents to file and lodge them by January 11, 2021. Then there was a motion set for hearing scheduled to be held on Jan 25, 2021 as indicated within Court Docket #121.

Now there is Court Docket #124 filed yesterday on Jan 12, 2021 by Judge Percy Anderson, on its own motion, to vacate the Final Pretrial Conference set for January 15, 2021 and set the Jury Trial for February 16, 2021. Since the case is not being thrown out and we were given the Jury Trial for February 16, 2021, then this action logically in my opinion is for good cause. The Judge either believes that what they have already submitted is enough for them to submit further disclosures or he is giving them the time needed to file such just as long as it is early enough before the Jury Trial on February 16, 2021. If it was not like such, then the Judge would have thrown the case out already.

People seemed to have seen the Jury Trial being on February 16, 2021 for the first time in the title from the court dockets and assumed that this date was new when in fact it was known back from Court Docket #121 that was filed back on 01/04/2021. Also, the final Final Pretrial Conference is absolutely not necessary for things to positively move forward in favor of TMXN so the judge making the decision to vacate it, means nothing bad.

THIS ABSOLUTELY GREAT NEWS IN MY OPINION!

Please understand, I'm not a lawyer as the thoughts above is how I have interpreted things. Read these reasons below for justifying why a pretrial is ever deemed necessary to transpire:


At the final pretrial conference (also called a settlement conference), all parties meet with the Court prior to trial for the purpose of effecting an amicable settlement or, if a settlement is not achieved, to narrow the legal issues for trial and set a date for trial to begin.
https://www.law-ohio.com/lawsuits-and-court/final-pretrial-settlement-conference/

Judges also use pre-trial conferences to encourage settling cases. At the conference, the judge and the lawyers can review the evidence and clarify the issues in dispute.
https://www.americanbar.org/groups/public_education/resources/law_related_education_network/how_courts_work/pretrial_conference/

b.Purpose of a pretrial conference. At a pretrial conference, the parties and the court may discuss (1) the status of the lawsuit, including whether the parties served disclosure statements; (2) whether there is any further possibility of settlement; (3) whether the parties are engaging or intend to engage in the use of discovery under Rules 123 through 126; and (4) a date for trial.
https://casetext.com/rule/arizona-court-rules/justice-court-rules-of-civil-procedure/part-viii-mediation-conference-and-pretrial-conference/rule-131-pretrial-conference-settlement-conference


Just by reading those reasons for why a pre-trial was going to take place, I believe it is a good thing for how things have transpired up to this point. Having a pretrial would have simply caused things to have settled past this 01/04/2021 date that was already put in place a good while back on 01/04/2021 for when I had first seen such. I believe they will go straight to accelerating the closing of a legal resolution because of the merger between Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY) and Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) that are in advanced stages of their merger talks to close early 2021 to become a C$4.8 billion company. By not doing it like this, a resolution could have been forced to transpire past their closing date for their merger.

The TMXN vs Tilray Resolution

Just as some food for thought, what I think Tilray should do is offer TMXN shares of Tilray to the tune of maybe something like 5,000,000 shares of Tilray. Let's do the math. The current number for the Outstanding Shares (OS) for TLRY/Tilray is currently 133,526,319 shares:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/TLRY/security

Considering that the merger with Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) is going to make Tilray a C$4.8 billion company, adding another 5 Million shares will only increase their OS to 138,526,319 shares and will not hurt their valuation in the least bit fundamentally, especially since the merger is going to reduce $100 Million worth of debt for Tilray and Aphria.

Here's what this means for TMXN shareholders if something like this was done to resolve the issue. The OS for TMXN is 466,844,058 shares. Today, Tilray is trading at approximately $15.00 per share. This means that if the 5,000,000 Tilray shares are split between the 466,844,058 shares this means this below...

5,000,000 (Tilray) ÷ 466,844,058 shares (TMXN OS) = .0107 Distribution Ratio

This means that for every 1 share of TMXN that you own, you will get .0107 worth of the 5,000,000 shares of Tilray that would be set for the TMXN settlement. Take for an example; if you own 1 million shares of TMXN, you are going to get 10,700 (1,000,000 x .0107) shares of Tilray of which currently is at $15.00 per share which means that you will get $160,500 worth of value (10,700 x $15.00).

So...

1,000,000 shares of TMXN at .0086 = $8,600
10,700 shares of Tilray at $15.00 = $160,500


If this scenario was to happen... when you spend $8,600 to buy 1,000,000 shares of TMXN at its current price of .0086 per share, you would get in return the $160,500 in value from being awarded settlement shares of Tilray.

So...

To grasp the undervaluation that would exist from a resolution like this in the value for TMXN shares to where your TMXN value would be worth the Tilray number of shares you would get from the resolution... we need to determine this Price of Equilibrium for where your 1,000,000 shares of TMXN would be worth the value of $160,500 for your Tilray shares. To do this, we need to divide the values by each other and then multiply that number by the .0086 per share price for TMXN.

So...

$160,500 ÷ $8,600 = 18.66

18.66 x .0086 = .16

This means that if this scenario was to happen, then buying TMXN at .16 would warrant you a 100% return in value from your Tilray shares awarded for the resolution.

This means that if this scenario was to happen, then buying TMXN at .32 would warrant you a 50% return in value from your Tilray shares awarded for the resolution.

This means that if this scenario was to happen, then buying TMXN at .64 would warrant you a 25% return in value from your Tilray shares awarded for the resolution.

I think you get the point. You can use the Substitution Property to substitute out any variable that might be different if such a resolution of this kind was to be released.

In my opinion, in summary, it’s worth giving the TMXN shareholders 5 million shares of Tilray to make this lawsuit go away. If I was the Mediator or the Judge for being someone of merit that both sides respect and would listen to, this is what I would recommend for both sides to consider for a fair resolution. It wouldn’t hurt the OS for Tilray as an additional 5 million shares would be basically a drop in the buck considering how the merger with Aphria (NASDAQ:APHA) is going to make them a C$4.8 billion company. This is what someone needs to bring to the tale for a resolution that should make all sides happy.

v/r
Sterling

Exit Strategy & Etiquette Thoughts for a Stock
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I never give investing advice; only my beliefs for risks in a stock.