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Tuesday, January 12, 2021 11:08:39 AM
I think the short-term results (3 to 12 months) should be pretty decent as the short-term Covid effect that created the demand for client and server CPUs is masking the effects of losing some market share to AMD.
What concerns me most is the medium to long-term risk of ARM incursions. Unfortunately, we will never get a clear picture as company managements have mastered the art of being glib - embellishing the positives and downplaying or even concealing the negatives. They don't give direct answers and hide behind standard disclaimers.
Also, since their compensation packages have significant cash components, they don't hurt as much when the stock does not perform. There should be a way to tilt the compensation packages heavily towards stock with a much smaller cash component - they should be able to live pretty well with even a 10-20% cash component with the rest being stock options priced at market value at the time of issuance.
These guys have the best of both worlds - they have become used to having their cake and eating it too.
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