Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[Leronlimab4DaWin]

Why CD12 cannot achieve p-value < 0.05

Before I begin, please familiarize yourself with these two studies

CYDY CD 12

tocilizumab and sarilumab Study

How can Leronlimab acheive p-value <0.05
With 90 deaths (they listed 87 but to be safe let's say 90 bc there was still ~10 days of trail left) the placebo group needs to have a death rate over 31% (even Joshua Lankford of Emerging has 90 deaths and agrees).


Trial Designs
CYDY was for severe and critical patients. The salient distinction is severe patients are not vented while critical patients are. Also worth nothing, the most critical patients do not fall within this range: "Subject, if intubated, positive endexpiratory pressure (PEEP) <15 cmH2O with PaO2/FiO2 >150 mmHg" and Cytodyn excluded that group for its study

Toci and Sari results
Toci and Sari placebo group had a mortality rate of 36%. Although above 31% necessary, remember this was for the critical, vented, cohort only. Cytodyn will have, most likely, half of the study be severe, which is showing mortality rates of about 10%

Why placebo group can't be >31% death rate
The study, would have been halted for efficacy and Leronlimab would have been approved as current standard of care. The fact that it wasn't means that it is improbable that the placebo group will have >31% death rate while overall death rate is 23%