Bionanao Genomics Inc (BNGO)

[MWM]

DD. Also, if you doubted me last night or this morning, fucking told you so. Get in now!



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This is the most important page on Bionano's website. At minimum, please read what is circled before continuing, although the entire brochure is worth a read (I know because I've done so multiple times.) If you do not see why this is so important, it will be explained below.

My goal is to put everything in this DD into terms that are easily digestible and understandable, as obviously genomics is a topic that has very few experts, and there are plenty of posts going in depth into technical analysis and getting deep in the weeds. This will be long, but I have tried to pair it down as much as possible. TLDR: buy this stock or cry when it moons.



Everything I have seen about BNGO, from both Bears and Bulls, has been focused on the wrong areas. I have spent the last few days pouring over their website, researching their team, peers/competitors in the space, investors, and the tech that they have developed.

I want to touch briefly on the most common criticisms of BNGO that I see, and why they are not relevant when putting a value on this company. The Bulls are also focused on the wrong aspects of this company when forming their own justifications, which will be addressed as well.


First though, we need to take a step back from the company itself, and talk very briefly about the sector of the market that it occupies, as well as the life cycle of the market at a macro scale.

The market is a "living" system. It goes through cycles, and there are patterns that emerge when you look at the companies that occupy the market during these cycles. The most successful companies of every cycle come from what we would broadly define as "tech". For obvious reasons. 

A cycle of the market looks like this: A new field/industry is formed, companies start up to develop that space, a few companies emerge as dominant players, the tech is widely adopted, eventually the "winners" become very clear and the chance of real competition emerging from the market falls to nearly 0, new industry and tech is developed in an unoccupied space as a result, repeat. We currently are in a transition period between cycles. The dot com bubble has been realized, the big dogs are known.


Genomics is one of the new "tech" sectors emerging. In my opinion it is the one with the most promise and potential, equivalent to what computation was in the last 3 decades. Of all the companies fighting for dominance in this space, BNGO is the one I see at the top.


Let's talk about BNGO quickly, more specifically their product. I am sure many of you are already in the know, and if so feel free to skip this section:


BNGO's flagship product is Saphyr. Saphyr is used to map genomes and compute/analyze the data gathered. They have implemented AI to streamline this process and reduce cost. It is currently the cheapest method on the market.

Saphyr uses Biochips as an input device. Biochips are small cards with nanotubes etched into them. They make dna collection faster and easier, increasing the ease of use of their product dramatically while lowering the skill ceiling needed to do the type of data collection integral to genomic work. 


(RESUME READING HERE IF YOU SKIPPED)

The product they have developed, saphyr and biochips, will be referred to as Hardware from here on. 


Everyone is far too focused on the hardware, and this is where most criticism and praise is directed. Here's the thing, the capability of your hardware only matters so much at this stage of the game. BNGO's hardware is among the best (#1 imo, but top 3 no matter how you slice it.), and it is more than good enough to justify the service. This is why I put very little weight into people (who also know nothing about genomics and dna sequencing) who are bullish or bearish based on differences between the hardware of BNGO and their peers.

When a new "tech" emerges, you can guarantee that there will be major improvements in processes and hardware across the board. There is no hardware on the market right now that exceeds the ability/capability of BNGO to a degree that matters, the gap is not large enough to be of concern this early in the game. 

This is like if you were arguing that Yahoo would beat out Google because of the formatting they chose for their browser back in the early 2000's. 


The thing that matters and why I am all in on BNGO is not their Hardware, it is their Software and approach to implementation/adoption of the technology itself.


Data is King. This is true of all tech sectors. Google and Facebook's emphasis on data collection is what won them their positions as dominant forces. BNGO is positioning itself to gather more Genomic data than any other company in the space, and its not even close. 


How? 


Well, everything they have done up until now has been focused on reducing cost, streamlining and condensing the steps involved in genomic data collection and processing, lowering the skill ceiling for use, and making adoption of the hardware as easy as possible. They have also maintained their RnD and developed a top tier system at the same time, but their focus is clearly not on trying to improve their methodology and hardware to a point that it blows everyone else out of the water. In order to do that, you need to increase your capacity for data collection and the size of the sample you get the data from.


BNGO has developed custom software that their hardware requires. It is streamlined and easy to use, and they offer full support and training to any buyers of the system. Along with this, they offer FREE use of their cloud servers to process all of the genomic data generated by the end user, as well as generating analysis of that data.

The alternative option is for end users to buy in house servers and maintain all of the data collection and computation themselves. This is extremely expensive and cumbersome despite it's advantages.

The incentive in place is clearly directing end users into using the free cloud servers.


Saphyr is not only top tier hardware, but also CHEAP! The cheapest system on the market by orders of magnitude. For $150,000 you can get the Saphyr system and Biochips and all of the software. Genomes can be mapped for $500. This may sound expensive, but it is a price point that is low enough to entice entrepreneurs to buy the system, start a business, and use it to offer Genomic data collection as a service on the open market. This is crucial in getting the tech to be adopted more broadly, and to establish itself in the marketplace.


BNGO is making their product easy to adopt and use, and more accessible to the general public. This is what makes them different, and what will make them a dominant player in the marketplace. They make money by selling Hardware to end users, but far more importantly, they collect data from every end user they capture. 

Their model allows for them to expand their capacity for data collection exponentially, while simultaneously widening the sample pool they are collecting data from.


Major meaningful improvements to genomic Hardware require unimaginable amounts of data, and BNGO is positioned to be #1 in collection of genomic data. Their peers can pour billions into data collection, but it means nothing when BNGO is having end users do that work for them and getting paid for the privilege. 


This is huge, and their peers are not positioned to do the same thing without a serious restructuring of their business models and capital allocations, because they have not reduced the cost of their hardware enough to make it widely accessible, nor have they developed their software to be easy to use. This difference in capability FAR outweighs any gap in hardware capability at this point, and it positions BNGO to outpace every other company in improving their product going forward.


With every technology, getting a version into the hands of the broader public is the fastest way to develop meaningful advancements in that technology. BNGO is already top 3, as I stated, and with enough data they will be able to outpace the RnD of all their peers. 



This post is getting too long, so I will end it here. I have many other reasons for ranking BNGO as #1, and I will try to write up more DD to explain my reasoning. This industry is hard to talk about without losing people along the way, due to it being "mathy" and outside the average person's knowledge/skillset. I want to try and find a way of explaining my convictions without relying on hard analytics, but it takes time to reduce ideas to simple explanations. 


Real TLDR: This company has the potential and is positioned to be the dominant player in the field, and I would not be surprised to see shares valued over $100 within the next 5-10 years, to be conservative. If you are stopping yourself from buying because you are waiting for it to dip harder, you need to buy some now. Buy the dip, sure, but the upside potential with this company is so large that your priority should be in securing stock at all. Fretting over changes in price right now aren't worth the FOMO. If it starts to rocket, sure take some profits, but get in now. Amazon was a penny stock at ipo, if you could go back in time and buy in, would you refuse because the week you went back to it had gone up a few dollars from the previous? 

Genomics holds more potential upside than computing did. Get In Here!

https://www.reddit.com/r/BNGO/comments/ktbeer/dd_also_if_you_doubted_me_last_night_or_this/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf