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NY Crude Oil Futures - New Pattern Forming »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | January 1, 2021

At this time, the NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 4852. Up to now, this market has been declining for 2 years going into 2021 reflecting that this has been only still a bearish reactionary trend.

The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high eastablished back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 6 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2020 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2018.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 4850 and overhead resistance forming above at 4896. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of December 14th at 4943, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 2nd. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 6.615% in a stark panic type decline.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of December 14th has exceeded the previous high of 4190 made back during the week of October 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 3364 made the week of November 2nd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.

Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 8 months since the low established back in April.

This market is trading beneath that high of December which was 4943 by 1.84%. Critical support still underlies this market at 4235 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.

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