Tuesday, December 22, 2020 5:53:03 PM
The results are much better that what PR said. Slide 14-15 shows correct numbers which were clarified by them.
Real numbers
Total patients - 31
Total BBS patients - 28
No of patients dropped - 4
Total no of patients relevant - 24
No of patients with 5%+ weight reduction - 16 = 67% that is double the number compared to combined number of 34.5%
No of patients who lost more than 10% weight - 11 out of 24 (45.8%)
Mean reduction - 14.5%
Compared to 1st approval which had few hundred population, BBS has 1000-1500 target population in US alone
This is large population for rare disease - @ $200k per year - this is a big market.
Also this is not a gene therapy - so drug is needed forever and it keeps the weight down.
Last point - All genes targeted in basket trial are in BBS category (strong or very strong relationship) so they think the basket trial results may be positive.
Cash enough till 2022. I think if stock goes down further, it will be good opportunity to buy - stock could give 50% returns from here in 6 months based on basket trial results.
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