Ideanomics Inc (IDEX)

[lesgetrich]

We model CY22 EPS of $0.12 and apply a conservative 15x PE multiple to arrive at an intrinsic value of $1.82/share."

I don't think that that analysis includes the recent purchase of Timios Holdings. Timios alone could more than double the revenue projections of $89 million in 2022 and make the intrinsic value more than $3.60/share at a conservative PE of 15x (using $.24/share EPS).

If we take another look at that analysis, using the PE Ratios By Sector table maintained by NYU's Stern School of Business...

Price/Earnings Ratios By Sector

It's apparent that the analysis you cite is using the average PE for the auto industry. I would argue that share prices in the EV market are not behaving like the rest of the auto industry. Tesla, for example, is currently trading at a remarkable 1,183.9x PE. IDEX is not Tesla. However, it's not Ford or GM either. I'd say that the PE for companies in the EV sector would behave more like Green and Renewable Energy (87.99x) or Environmental and Waste Services (70.27x) which is actually closer to the average PE of the entire market at 60.52x.

Using your original estimate of $.12 EPS and doubling it to $.24 for the addition of Timios (this deserves more refinement and is probably too conservative), let's go with the higher PE of roughly 88x. This gives us a new rational price target of approximately $21.12/share

Of course I'm hoping we get closer to Tesla's PE in which case all bets are off LOL