Dendreon Corp fka DNDNQ

[walldiver]

I do believe that the avg price of the stock will be higher from mid-January to late March than it is now if Provenge is granted priority review. IMO, there have to be some shorts who would at least partially cover their short position. I think the absence of an experienced CEO since Simonetti left in mid-2005 really hurt the stock price. Simonetti would have waited until January 2006 to do the secondary a year ago, instead of doing it in the teeth of tax-loss selling during the stock price's worst year on the market. The fact that the company could only get $4.50 per share at a time when the stock was in the low 6's absolutely put the kibosh on any sort of institutional support. In addition, there have been so many biotech blowups since early 2005 that most investors familiar with the DNDN story and looking to go long have probably decided to wait on the panel meeting or the briefing doc day before jumping in.

There will be more attempts to hold the price back even if the briefing documents are not negative for Provenge. I think there will be some more letup upon positive panel news. I would expect the stock to open in the teens when it resumes trading after a thumbs up from the panel. However, I think that there will always be a contingent of short-sellers around the stock until a couple of decent quarters of product sales.