Future likely contracts and additive effect on share price:
Assumption: ILS during wartime PR of November 22 claims $35 million to date of ILS revenues with expected total of $44 million for year. PR of Dec 8th claims more than 300 vehicles in field. So by extrapolating that there will be slightly more units in service by December 31st, 2006 , the ILS revenue generated is roughly $9 million per 300 vehicles per month. This boils down to $30,000 per vehicle per month of ILS revenue in wartime
Assumption: ILAV contract : 180 M for 378 vehicles with value for FPI of $55M. This boils down to $476,000 per vehicle with FPI getting $145,000 per vehicle per contract….this figure does not try to figure out costs if BAE vs FPI makes vehicle….only base on Material agreement on June 2, 2006
Assumption: MRAP contract is worth $600,000 (guess) per vehicle. FPI gets 50% of revenue boiling down to $300,000 per vehicle per contract.
Assumption: MASTIFF $650,000 per unit
Assumption Buffalo $850,000 per unit
Assumption: assume GP% of 19 then subtracting out G&A of 15% (hopefully true with increased production) leaves net GP of 4% on manufacturing profits
Assumption: assume ILS GP% of 50?????? then subtracting out G&A of 30?????? leaves net GP of 20%
Assumption: 67 M shares outstanding
ILAV contract: 600 vehicles x $145,000 =$87 M x 4%= $3.5 M or 5 cents per share
ILS: 600 x $30,000x12 months=$216 M x 20%= $43 M or 64 cents per share
Total of 69 cents per share x P/E of 20 = $13.80 of share price
Now lets assume my ILS revenues one half of the prediction:32 cents + 5 cents= 37 cents
Total of 37 cents per share x P/E of 20 = $7.40 of share price
Gross income: $303 M ( $195 M if only 50% of ILS predicted)
P/S ratio of 2 = $9.04 (or $5.80 if only 50% of ILS predicted)
MRAP contract (1000 vehicles)
1000 x 50% x $600,000 = $300 M x 4%= $12M or 18 cents per share
ILS: 1000 x 50% x $30,000x12 months=$180M x 20%= $36 M or 54 cents per share
Total of 72 cents per share x P/E of 20 = $14.40 of share price
Now lets assume my ILS revenues one half of the prediction:26 cents Total of 44 cents per share x P/E of 20 = $8.80 of share price
Gross income: $480 M ( $390 M if only 50% of ILS predicted)
P/S ratio of 2 = $14.33 (or $11.64 if only 50% of ILS predicted)
(THIS IS ONLY FOR A 1000 VEHICLE MRAP ORDER)
MASTIFF
100 vehicles x $650,000 =$65 M x 4%= $2.6 M or 4 cents per share
ILS: 100 x $30,000x12 months=$36 M x 20%= $7.2 M or 11 cents per share
Total of 15 cents per share x P/E of 20 = $3.00 of share price
Now lets assume my ILS revenues one half of the prediction: 5 cents
Total of 9 cents per share x P/E of 20 = $1.80 of share price
Gross income: $101 M ( $83 M if only 50% of ILS predicted)
P/S ratio of 2 = $3.01 (or $2.48 if only 50% of ILS predicted)
Buffalo
100 vehicles x $850,000 =$85 M x 4%= $3.4 M or 5 cents per share
ILS: 100 x $30,000x12 months=$36 M x 20%= $7.2 M or 11 cents per share
Total of 16 cents per share x P/E of 20 = $3.20 of share price
Now lets assume my ILS revenues one half of the prediction:5 cents
Total of 10 cents per share x P/E of 20 = $2.00 of share price
Gross income: $121 M ( $103 M if only 50% of ILS predicted)
P/S ratio of 2 = $3.60 (or $3.07 if only 50% of ILS predicted)
If all contracts received and completed in one year??!!??, then they would be worth:
FULL ILS PREDICTION 50% ILS PREDICTION
P/E or 20: $34.40 $20.00
P/S of 2: $29.98 $22.99
AI
