RedHill Biopharma Ltd (RDHL)

[DorseyE]

Market potential and value of the pipeline
Talicia’s US and global markets are estimated at $1.4 billion and $4.8 billion annually.

RHB-204 has an US market potential of $500 million in 2017. RHB-102 has a worldwide potential market of $650 million annually in gastroenteritis and gastritis. In IBS-D, 2019 US market potential was estimated at $980 million annually. For RHB-106, this is $560 million annually. RHB-104 for Crohn’s has a worldwide market estimate of over $12.8 billion. Now, if you add them together, you get a lot of billions. Even a 1% penetration assumption for all these drugs put together gives you over $150 million in annual sales for the company. That rate is immensely conservative in some respects, because Movantik itself is making nearly $100 million per year, annualized from actual revenues, for the company. Nor is RedHill any pushover when it comes to getting approvals. The company has successfully received approval for Talicia and has successfully marketed and sold Movantik despite the pandemic. It has also ably protected its assets with patents. If you read through the corporate presentation, you will see that the company has strong IP for every asset it owns.

Thus, there’s little doubt that RedHill will be able to successfully launch and commercialize most of its pipeline assets over the next 2-3 years, and will also be able to protect its IP. I intentionally gave a 3-year estimate, because these are mainly antibacterial drugs, and treatment duration and therefore trial duration is usually less. The longest-duration trial I think I saw was around a year. So, the company's only constraint is going to be funding, to which we will now arrive.