Monday, December 07, 2020 1:58:35 PM
How about a little more business discussion?
First a little grounding...
As any review of political history would show, the problem with insurrectionists is they do not have the ability to govern. In business, even those with notable experience make suggestions of creating greater shareholder value by breaking up companies. Activist investor Nelson Peltz caused the breakup up of Kraft into two companies that have "not done better" apart as they did as a whole. He also tried to get PepsiCo to break up into snacks and drinks, suggesting they would be more valuable and "do better" as separate businesses. However, that defied the point of product diversification – which was the basis for Pepsi merging with Frito-Lay to form the new corporation. Wisely, PepsiCo rejected Peltz’s efforts.
This relates to the admonition that Elite needs to “do better" which is non-specific and raises the question - What does that have to do with Elite’s business model? This is an important question because the purpose of a business is to become profitable. Kind of like winning sports teams, it is about the bottom-line result.
On that point, because there is often more hope than grounded business reality expressed about Elite’s prospective revenues, let me offer a bit of gravitas…If we believe what Nasrat said about the remainder of the year, investors should expect Elite’s second half 2021 revenues to be around $16 Million, which brings total 2021 FY revenues to just over $30 M. With FY 2020 revenues of $18 M – which was about a 2.4X increase over FY 2019 – FY 2021 revenues would be a 1.7X and it is only early innings for the 3-5 year peak to revenue. I would warn against ungrounded comments about evidence of declining revenues. Again, allowing business realities to intrude, it remains that NO business can be expected to sustain an annual doubling of its revenues forever. Rather, what any business should look for is sustainable revenues.
On sustaining revenues, with the introduction of additional products, the potential is that Elite's revenue increases should be expected to continue and, just on the current products, enable Elite to hit about $150 M in revenues by FY 2025. However, beyond the “breadcrumbs” offered by the small market generics, there is the expectation the prospective CNS generic Elite has on tap has a potential market of $1.5 B and limited competition. With a simple prorated market share, it is reasonable to expect Elite to garner 8-12% of that product market and be on track to generate a combined total of $250 M p/year in revenues by FY 2024/2025. (Do the math, it tracks.)
Adapting to the competitive environment in ways that enable a company to become profitable and do so without incurring onerous debt would - in the opinion of business executives I know - confirm a business and its management are "doing better." The results argue that Elite is “doing better" when recognizing the company increased its fully diluted O/S 2013 vs. 2020 by 2.7X while increasing its revenues to date 5.29X. This means for the cost of shares, without incurring additional debt that has to be paid, Elite has more than doubled revenues. With that business reality, whatever else the company, its management or its BOD have done, it has not impaired its drive to profitability.
So, in sum, the continued refrain that investors should expect Elite to “do better” is unsupported by a firm definition of what “do better” actually means when compared to the reality that the company has achieved the goal of all companies - profitability.
Frankly, the trite refrain that Elite needs to “do better” is rather like a fan in the stands lamenting his team is “winning ugly.”
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