BioCryst Pharmaceuticals,Inc. (BCRX)

[Femto99]

Some math Stockwise user posted. Insanely undervalued here

Dr_Van_Nostrend

03:34 AM
$BCRX
I know many Stock Twitters don't do math
Not that you CAN'T or WON'T... but most don't. Math is the FIRST thing I do when looking at an investment because numbers don't lie, people do. (I don't)

BCRX valuation:

Orladeyo - US sales estimated taking 40% to 60% of patients. I go WAY more conservative and say 20%. 7500 currently treated patients in US. 7500 X .2 = 1500 peak patients. 500K per patient minus costs / commissions etc.. call it 400K net. 1500 X 400K = 600M net US. The EU has about 6500 currently receiving treatment... 20% = 1300. EU charges much less than US... net we'd get is only 150K per patient. 150K X 1300 = 195M. Japan has about 500 patients clicically diagnosed. With Sakigake designation, there is a premium, though not as high as US. About 300K net. On avg we get 25% of that from Torii. 500 x .2 = 100 patients X 300K =30M x .25 royalty =7.5 mil annually.

600M US + 195M EU + 7.5M Japan = 802.5M annually at a super conservative HALF anticipated