Grip, it was very nice of you to take all that time to write your excellent reply. I chickened out of even pretending to answer the valuation question on a largely equity-funded enterprise.
And that leads to an unpopular point. And, one that presents a challenge. It's hard to maintain being equity funded, when the company doesn't have enough shares to sell. A reverse split would negate the need to increase the Authorized Shares. However, with Fife's history of failure to comply with FINRA direction, I doubt they would approve a reverse split for CYDY.
So Nader may be counting on OWS funding; the $80M milestone payment with a BLA for HIV; or a buyout that would include paying off the Fife debt, and making it possible to reverse after that...unless they just increased the AS. But shareholders aren't going to be happy with either a reverse split, or a substantial increase in the AS.
I think Nader has got to be counting on a buyout. If so, this might be more palatable if a reverse split was announced with a buyout based on the post-split purchase price.
I think an EUA could allow the company to capture its share of the Covid therapeutic market. And I think a BLA for HIV could also allow off-label usage. So there is a possibility of some value beyond 1.5 times the return on investment.
I do have a triple digit selling price entered GTC+extended for HGEN shares. However, with the OS being as low as it is there, the Market Cap only has to touch $5-6B for the seconds that it would take to fill my sell order to make me happy. NVAX went from the $3 range (I believe), to its high of $189, realizing an $11B market cap for that time.
I wonder if Nader speaks so automatically about a triple digit share price because he has subconsciously based that on a lower Outstanding Share count.
And as far as what I think this company is worth, I frankly think it is already very expensive and I'm surprised it has done so well in holding its current value. I've actually been impressed by that.
I found your post to be very informative, Grip, and I greatly appreciate it.
