Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[RumplePigSkin]

FOF - Divies aren’t being turned on for years. Even a remedy, unless ordered by Scotus, will probably take at least 6 months after a SCOTUS ruling. So absolute earliest is probably early 2022, and that is with a substantial remedy from a lower court.

Most likely it will take at least 2 and more likely 3 to 4 years to become buffer capitalized, and then there would be divies.

As it stands now, divies aren’t in play for a long, long time. That’s why PE sensitivity is better than JPS divy sensitivity. Plus, the only hope is a JPS conversion ... I don’t see how Calabria and Mnuchin do that without calculating fair market value, and performing the proper analysis that was done for the over 100 companies that received bailouts during the 2008 financial crisis on fair market value.

If Trump won maybe the runway would’ve been better for JPS, e.g., longer to organize a conversion without producing tight, now calendar driven events, that benefit commons dramatically more than JPS.

Certainly things can change if Calabria goes early, e.g., cap rule is lowered. But all things being equal, I don’t see how a quick JPS conversion works.