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S&P 500 Index (SPX) - New Pattern Forming »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 28, 2020

S&P 500 Cash Index opened above the previous high and closed above it as well warning of a bullish posture right now. It closed today at 363835 and is trading up about 12% for the year from last year's settlement of 323078. This price action here in November is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 364599 intraday and is still trading above that high of 354985.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction decline from the high established during September. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2020, which has been a run of 11 years warning that timing wise a pause remains possible.

This market is still what we classify as a Bull Market given its strong posture above our Quarterly to Yearly indicating models while the Weekly and monthly levels remain positive but showing signs of overhead resistance.

DAILY OVERVIEW

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 362311.

The market opened very strong above the previous trading day's high. The S&P 500 Cash Index has opened above the previous high which is a very positive signal of a possible rally closing above the previous session's high. All our indicators are still in a bullish mode. Nevertheless, the market is still trading within our normal projected envelope and it is at the upper threshold of resistance in our momentum models.

This market just exceeded the previous high perhaps reversing the decline which has been in motion since Monday November 16th for the past 9 trading days. Thus far, the immediate rally has been over the course of 13 days. A lower opening in the next session that fails to make a new high will warn that this particular high will stand and a retest of support becomes likely. This will tend to be confirmed once today's low of 362933 is penetrated intraday. However, the critical intraday support will lie at 361776 and that is what needs to be breached to suggest a shift in trend to the downside.

This is still a rally that has been making new highs.

Bear in mind that we have made a new high this week changing the Weekly Bearish Reversals once this week is concluded. Still, this is only a minor Bearish Reversal since we made a lower high. However, we have also made a new monthly high exceeding the previous month's high reaching 364599 which also means the immediate Monthly Bearish Reversals will change once this month is concluded.

As of now, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish. At this instant, the market remains within our trading envelope in a bullish position.

This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment. The short-term Stochastics are bullish but nearing a temporary overbought position soon on the horizon.

This market still has not yet exceeded the last key high of 364599 established back on 11/09. However, an opening BELOW 363682 in the next session would warn that the high of this session may stand at least temporarily.

WEEKLY OVERVIEW

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 9th at 364599, which was up 7 weeks from the low made back during the week of September 21st. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past 2 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 2.556% in a stark panic type decline.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 9th has exceeded the previous high of 354985 made back during the week of October 12th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 320945 made the week of September 21st. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.

Weekly Indicating Ranges

Immediate Trend .......... bullish
Short-Term Momentum ...... bullish
Short-Term Trend ......... bullish
Intermediate Momentum .... bullish
Intermedia Trend ......... bullish
Long-Term Trend .......... bullish
Cyclical Strength ........ bullish
Broadest Trend ........... bullish

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