$RLFTF (related) copy - Vanex Wong
taASupgoenusthsmoar i2ueoedS8 ·
From Hong Kong again. I've been reviewing immunology researches released in thr past decades and come up with an update on the qualitative side of fundamentals and valuation for VIP/RLF-100/Aviptadil/Samivir etc.
The most profitable drug throughout the past decade is Humira, a TNF-alpha inhibitor to treat inflammatory events that causes severe illness such as Arthritises (eg. Rheumatoid Arthritis ), Ankylosing Spondylitis, Ulcerative Colitis, Crohn's Disease and etc.
Humira is a drug under Abbvie, with sales of US$19.1 billion worldwide in 2019, comprising 57% of Abbvie's annual income. Abbvie's current market capitalisation is US$166.4 billion, 2020 Forward PE at 9x, EV/EBITDA at 10.4x. It's note that Humira has been facing keen competitions in immunity-regulation area and stock price peaked in 2017, with Humira's patent expiring in 2023.
Current (2020) anti-inflammatory drug market is around US$100 billion per year, including respiratory diseases caused by excess immunity reactions eg. asthma. Inhaled/ Nebulized form of RLF-100 could be a huge bomb to the anti-inflammatory drugs market for respiratory diseases.
VIP has decades of deep scientific background for its function as an anti-inflammatory regulator/ mediator working on IL-6, TNF-alpha and deactivating Chemokines (CCL-5) receptors. For RLF-100's clinical trial where 7 out of 8 were saved from ARDS, TNF-alpha level were also significantly reduced.
Although no particular clinical trials on the above illness has been done, VIP's anti-inflammatory function had been somehow proven by curing COVID-19 severe stage patients, where not the SARS-CoV-2 virus but Inflammations hurting human the most. We could expect VIP, as a naturally existing peptide having been discovered, tested and proven working for decades, would become a game changer in the anti-inflammatory field.
Meanwhile, VIP's monetisation and commercialisation process will face political and rivals obstacles due to gigantic conflict of interests, I believe the fundamental of science will work its way out.
Considered the recurring nature of commercial value as an anti-inflammatory by synthesising naturally existing VIP, my previous TP of min. $2.1 to max. $9.3 no longer holds. Revised target price to be calculated, by referrencing to anti-inflammatory peers.
Assumptions for calculation: It'll be rational to think all VIP players taking 5-10% of whole anti-inflammatory drugs market, with Relief being the biggest player, by 2025. Realisation period may go far beyond 3-5 years (look at ABBV.US). Relief Therapeutics is no longer a COIVD-19-only play.
Dedicated to Sami Said, MD, and Viktor Mutt, MD, who discovered VIP in 1970s and had a vision to see VIP commercialised decades ago.
