Algernon Pharmaceuticals Inc (AGNPF)

[medchem]

This is typically good news. Usually if the company is uncertain if the drug is working, the last thing you would do is release early results. There is a statistical reason for this. In order to demonstrate "positive signal" a trial needs to have sufficient "power". Power is attained by enrolling enough patients. So what this means is that if your placebo and treatment drug both work almost similarly, then you need lots of patients to detect a difference between them. If you have a treatment drug that works like a miracle with huge positive signal, you only need a few patients to demonstrate the signal.

I.e. if they are releasing the results early, this means that they must be confident they have a signal and don't need tons of patients to demonstrate the signal, otherwise they would wait to the end.

Also, now that they have put this news release out, any insider buying (because they know the drug is working) can be covered up by the company chalking it up to "buyers saw we were releasing a data readout" and nobody will ask any questions... IMO this is a way for the company to allow insiders to get there shares. I bet the share price is about to run up.

Lastly, I am not sure why the share price dipped on the vaccine news. Even if the vaccine was 90% effective, not everyone would get it, and theres always going to be people getting sick from COVID so there will always be a need for treatments to help decrease lung injury. Vaccines aren't cures. The fact people sold today shows they have no idea whats going on scientifically speaking.