The virus is taking its toll on the markets. Europe is shutting down (just look at France) to reduce the number of infections. The number of new daily cases in the US is hitting record numbers. And the virus is expected to worsen during the colder months. If the country starts to really shut down, the markets will take a big hit. They are already being hit, but an economic slowdown will mean much lower prices. The election, I think, is a secondary factor. No matter who wins, half of the population will be disappointed and that may very well result in social unrest. Here's an excerpt from Doug Noland's CreditBubble Bulletin :
A few data points: Daily infections in France averaged about 550 during June. They had surged to 13,970 by the first day of October. A record 52,013 infections were reported last Sunday and 49,000 on Friday. Daily Italian infections peaked at 6,557 on March 21st and then averaged below 300 for much of the summer. Infections jumped to 2,548 on October 1st and were a record 31,084 Friday. Spain has observed daily infections surge from several hundred in June to Friday’s 25,595. After beginning the month at 2,503, German cases Thursday rose to 16,774. Cases have spiked to 24,000 in Belgium, 22,000 in Poland, and 9,000 in Switzerland. In the UK, after averaging below 1,000 during the summer, new cases averaged about 25,000 over the past week.
Cases here at home remained highly elevated all summer. And if U.S. infections now follow Europe’s trajectory, our nation is facing a dark and challenging winter. By the look of new infection trends in the likes of Michigan, Ohio and Illinois, a worst-case scenario appears increasingly likely. This is a highly infectious virus that now permeates the entire country – cities large and small, the suburbs and rural communities
