Monday, October 26, 2020 12:16:45 PM
My hope is the following:
1. Capital requirements published in the next couple of weeks
2. FNMA and FMCC get advice from JPM and MS on how much common and other equity needed to meet capital requirements and timing. Calabria starts to negotiate terms of consent decree which incorporates capital raise and proforma capital structure for exit from Conservatorship on Jan 1.
3. Everyone gets direction regarding the direction of a ruling from oral argument comments at SCOTUS on Dec 9th.
4. Settlement negotiations begin with expectations of SCOTUS remanding the case back to the 5th Circuit.
5. Consent decree and exit from Conservatorship on Jan 1.
6. SCOTUS Opinion in May to June
7. Parties reach final terms of settlement in June - to July
8. Capital raises start mid 2021 on foundation of new capital structure from settlement. SCOTUS issues opinion but 5th Circuit litigation is settled.
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