Apple Inc (AAPL)

[maknak]

Stevenote 2005, 2006... 2007?

I am currently analysing the intraday charts of the last two keynotes to get an idea of good entry and exit points. The 2006 one is very bullish while the 2005 one is very bearish.

To give you an idea, here are two price points and OLHC:

                                2005      2006 
  
 12:10 (Steve walks on stage)   68.53     77.62 
 12:24 (After ????)             65.01     79.72 
 Price change                   -3.52     +2.10 
 Percent change                 -5.1%     +2.7% 
  
 Open                           68.25     76.25 
 Low                            64.14     75.83 
 High                           69.15     81.89 
 Close                          64.56     80.86

I remember that for the 2006 one, the trigger was the amount of iPod sales (you can verify and watch the video at http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/mwsf06/)>. There is also the minute by minute account at http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/technology/archives/2006/01/10/stevenote_minute_by_minute.html>. The trigger was 9:10 (12:10 est) "We went into holiday quarter with best music players on the planet. We sold 4.5m iPods a year ago in the holiday quarter of 2004. Some of estimates for this year were getting high - 10m, 11m, 12m. But last quarter we sold 14m iPods."

However, for 2005, I can't find the reason for such a big drop so early in the expo. I found the minutes here http://www.engadget.com/2005/01/11/live-from-macworld-2005-steve-jobs-keynote/>. The trigger seems to be: 9:15 (12:15 est) "Tiger on schedule to ship first half of this year with 200 new features".

Did people expect the new os to be available that day and were unhappy ? I can't find any explanation, I even checked the wayback machine (archive.org)...

Anybody has a good memory ?

While I'm at it, anyone knows the expected number of ipod sales for the quarter just ended ?

Any thoughts are welcomed!