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Re: sjacobs26 post# 120706

Saturday, 10/03/2020 1:32:26 AM

Saturday, October 03, 2020 1:32:26 AM

Post# of 232962
Jacobs, thank you for your perspective. From a pure short interest I concur. What I’m seeing is a slow erosion of the SP absent a short attack the likes of a Citron or run of the mill AF. They are laying in the weeds waiting for the next run up.

I believe in LL’s MOA and high possibility of success w the S/C trial. I was close to pulling the trigger today as the mid 2’s are what I have identified as the first bite to building a new position. I see timing my entry as a total calculated gamble, but a risk I am willing to take. The way I look at it I have two option to buy back in.

Option #1
Buy this coming week prior to S/C interim hoping for lopsided data that favors the drug arm. Lopsided and statistically convincing enough to influence the DSMC to at least issue an EUA and have enrollment continue to gain full approval. I V see this as a 20% probability at best.

Option #2
Assume that the DSMC will simply rule to continue to full enrollment w no EUA. If that is the case the SP is going to erode because of the lag time to full enrollment and readout. In my estimation that would place the news for the S/C into Jan/Feb 2021. IMO this is the safest option to invest but also carries the risk that this option never happens because interim blows doors and DMSC grants EUA and the SP runs away.

Regardless I have much belief in LL and I wish the best for Longs. I will never bash or be part of the negativity and deception of an orchestrated short attack.
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