Wednesday, September 23, 2020 3:02:37 PM
I don't think it will hold. Why would it?
Some of these Robinhood yahoos are just now starting to realize that stocks can go down as well as go up. They all have some deciding to do.
And if Dems regain power, they are apparently the party supporting reductions in the deficit. So, that will mean higher taxes on companies and higher taxes on cap gains. Not exactly a recipe for rising prices.
And there WILL be P/E compression once folks digest the notion that the Fed is dead set on raising inflation -- remember the nominal rate is the real rate plus inflation premium.
So, the timeline for COVID rebound is slower than hoped (lowering E), and higher corporate taxes will lower E still further, P/E compression will occur as inflation appears (since they doubled the Fe balance sheet), and then you have the P you are left with when you do sell is going to be slammed with higher taxes. And people are going to want to hold stocks??
I really do not think so.
I am obviously NOT an investment advisor.
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