Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

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Oil & Gas Stock Index (XOI) - Still Under Pressure »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 19, 2020

The Oil & Gas Stock Index closing today at 67046 is immediately trading down about 47% for the year from last year's settlement of 127055. Currently, this market has been declining for 3 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's low of 71625 on a closing basis, then it will remain weak for now. This price action here in September is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 64887 intraday and remains trading beneath that level.

Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

The historical perspective in the Oil & Gas Stock Index included a rally from 2003 moving into a major high for 2014, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2016 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 86847. On the other hand, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 01/01 from 2014, which tends to warn that the 2014 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Nonetheless, the bounce since the 2016 low has been unable as yet to make any new high. Noticeably, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2018.This market is still holding positive on our yearly indicating models with overhead system resistance and underlying system support, it remains in a negative poisition on all other levels from the quarterly down to weekly. In fact, the quarter models are in a bearish position with important overhead system resistance whereas we still have underlying support remaining on the monthly and weekly levels.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Oil & Gas Stock Index, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 69021 and support forming below at 67020. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of September 7th at 64887, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of August 10th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of September 7th, which has been a move of .0549%.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for two months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 5 months. Meanwhile, the past five months has witnessed a rally of 34% percent. A month-end closing below 984 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 1285 to maintain a near-term upward rally.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 95630 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during June. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 129844 back during January. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.

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