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Today's news was very good. While it "shatters"

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dh_   Tuesday, 09/15/20 07:50:53 PM
Re: None
Post # of 17897 
Today's news was very good. While it "shatters" last years numbers it also shows that we have gone 4 months with basically flat growth. Not saying that's bad at all, it's only 4 months and it is fantastic to know they can maintain those new and higher levels of revenue. And we are also told that more growth is on the way with the China Mobile and Telefonica revenue which should appear in September and even more so in October.

And there are other things in the works too from the other subsidiaries that are still works in progress. And presumably a lot of this comes with very little additional extraordinary expenditures. Who knows when the market may get excited about the news, but ultimately the better revenues only mean something if it translates to net income. To me, I see progression in that regard from older 10-Q's to now, but the confirmation in positive net incomes would (or will) be great to see.

Then there is the psychology of the stock price. If the price was going to say a dollar in the next few months, and who knows what it will do or not do, but if you felt like it was going to dollar we will say. Then the price goes down a penny and you feel like you were wrong, and maybe even sell. Or you expect the price to go up but you won't buy because it's too low, or because its too high. Too low - and thinking its not going anywhere, too high and you think it will come back down.

But if you really felt like a dollar was on the way what price would be too much to buy? 10 cents, 20 cents, 50 cents? If you knew you would see a dollar then you could buy at 90 cents all day long and bag a profit. But here we are today and almost no one wants to pay even 10 cents for this stock. I think this sort of describes the problem with this stock right now, but who knows what tomorrow will bring?

And it's not just been a lack of trying, because of all the shares that are/were being unloaded. But if they stock was worth a dollar, and on its way there for sure the buyers would push all the sellers on out of the way to get there. Then as you hypothetically see 1 dollar, or 2 or 4 or whatever, more and more people and/or institutions join in, looking for whatever the next level is that could be justified by the company's outlook.

In short, I think if we could somehow get a good run started, it could feed itself. It almost happened earlier in the year, but COVID hit and what not. But you could see then that once the price rose just a little it got the attention of some various media and then that brings in more buyers. And then there are perhaps some of us now that wouldn't think of paying 10 or 20 cents for the stock now, but if they saw it taking off they would grab all they can at those prices or more. FOMO- Psychology.

I try to stay focused on the numbers. IMO, the great advances in revenue could translate into net income if they hold on all types of expenses, but some more confirmation would be great. Then if you can ever get a feel of how well revenues will convert to net income, and apply a reasonable PE, you can make your own (hopefully) educated guesses at where the stock price may go, and how much you should pay if you are a buyer. Whatever the purchase price was, where will it go from there?. Or, as Howie says, "but did you get a good deal?"

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