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Re: Uncle Gee Gee post# 19724

Wednesday, 09/09/2020 1:09:08 PM

Wednesday, September 09, 2020 1:09:08 PM

Post# of 44690
I think the reopening of schools may be re-seeding a new wave of covid cases that will not become apparent until November/December. Here's why...

The plan for most schools is to allow kids to return, follow CDC guidelines, and track which kids have classes with each other, so they know who has been exposed when a covid case shows up. Once someone has covid, they will quarantine (send home) everyone who has been exposed.

Here's the problem...

1) Kids aren't doing a good job following CDC guidelines. They hang out together, where masks below their noses, touch surfaces, wipe eyes, mouths, etc.

2) Exposures can't really be tracked... Once someone is identified with covid, the school has a list of students who have supposedly been exposed and need to quarantine. But there are 2 problems with this approach: First... by the time the school learns about the child with covid, they could have been spreading it around for up to 2 weeks already. There is no way the school really knows who was exposed because; Second... the school isn't accurately tracking all exposures during lunch periods, football practices, recess, extra curricular activities, restroom usage, after-school socializing, cross-exposure through family members/siblings, cross-exposure in the community. So... during the 2 weeks the kids were running around exposing everyone, those people were running around exposing others, who were running around exposing more...

...and so a new wave of covid cases may have already been seeded enough to cause a wave that would only become apparent in a couple months or so. Only time will tell.

Disclaimer: I am not a professional advisor. Seek professional advice before investing or trading. I take risky positions and do not advise anyone to follow my opinions or actions.