Mace Security International Inc (MACE)

[gilead23]

MACE notes from today

I did a one on one as part of the LD Micro conference with management. The most relevant thing to people here is probably revenue capacity at their existing facility which he estimates at 35 million annually. That could probably give us a rough guess of where revenues trends are given the third shift that apparently is being added.

Assume 3 million a shift. They have 2 shifts today and from job postings are in the process of adding a third. That tells me we may see revenue in the 6 million range for Q3 give or take. The fact that they are adding permanent jobs for a third shift suggests they think the permanent run rate is north of 6 million a quarter. I'm assuming about 5.5 million and modeling for .015 a share in Q3. Assuming they are correct about demand trends Q4 would be stronger than that.

They have had some successes with the personal safety section in retail stores although they aren't naming stores. To me this is a significant opportunity. I can envision gas stations, sporting goods stores, and others with personal safety product sections. Successes would be used to market to new retail locations.

They are looking for a permanent CFO so IMO we are going to see some expense bump around that but my impression is as a percent of sales we shouldn't be seeing increases and given revenue bumps it will probably fall.

They did have some supply chain issues around covid and are looking for alternative sources to buffer any potential issues with that. Still think this is undervalued and will see a bump maybe over 1. There really isn't a better story stock for civil unrest, and insecurity. I like the combination of turned around operations, likely cheap on a multiple basis, and the possibility of it being a story stock to boot.