Algernon Pharmaceuticals Inc (AGNPF)

[Money $hot]

In my opinion, we are still on target for a Q4 Data Readout.


July 16, 2020

Trial Start Date

Enrollment of the 1st patient for the Phase 2b/3 study is expected before the end of July 2020. It is difficult to assess at this time what the enrollment rate for the study will be across all countries and all sites selected. After the study begins, the Company will make an assessment of the enrollment rate and will provide an update to the market on a projected completion date as well as when the data will be expected.

August 5 2020

Phase 2b Study Completion and Data Readout

Now that the study has begun, the Company will make an assessment of the enrollment rate and will provide an update to the market in due course on a projected completion date as well as when the read out of the data can be expected.

August 6, 2020 Proactive webcast

August 11, 2020 Proactive webcast


August 13, 2020

Phase 2b Study Completion and Data Readout

The Company will provide an update to the market shortly on a projected completion date as well as when the read out of the data can be expected.

August 18, 2020 Algernon Pharmaceuticals Facebook L!ve

August 19, 2020 BioPub webcast

August 26, 2020 BioPub webcast


September 2, 2020

Phase 2b Study Completion and Data Readout

The Company will provide an update to the market on a projected completion date of the study as well as when the read out of the data can be expected when enrollment in the study reaches the 50% target level.

August 21, 2020

Briefly: Play the above video. What I find as mixed messging is - at the beginning of the video CJM says Algernon is "planning" to conduct a P2b/3 human trial for COVID19. Then CJM closes the video by saying Algernon recently announced 1st Patient Enrolled for COVID-19.

What I have said before and continue to say is CJM talks out of both sides of his mouth.

It's mixed messaging.

Why not just get right to the friggin point?!

Algernon is actively running a COVID-19 clinical trial, but are we?

Stop pussyfooting around with the messaging CJM.

IMO CJM continues to walk on eggshells when it comes to unequivocally stating Algernon is conducting a COVID-19 human trial.

By the time CJM gets around to straight talk the trial will be completed.

Now back to my measured assessment...

Every event (date) above has built upon the narrative that common shareholders will receive a projected clinical trial end date and data readout. Therefore, with every news release/media event that doesn'r answer the question(s), it raises more doubt about hitting the Q4 data readout target for COVID-19. The CEO has stated on more than one occassion he didn't want to drag shareholders through "the rose bushes" regarding the covid trial timeline. However, it's safe to say that's egg zack lee what has happened to date. Hence, a news release that has not lived up to market expectations. Thereby, creating a wirlwind of negative speculation.

Some of which I believe is completely unfounded.

The argument about picking better hospitals is like a moving target. The disease is moving from hot spot to hot spot. management also stated a lot of the large hospitals simply don't have the bandwidth to take on additional clinical trials because big pharma has gobbled up the terrain - that makes sense.

The argument about the data being bad because doctors would be buying the stock in droves if Ifenprodil was proving itself effective in covid patients. There's all kinds of twisted speculation wrapped in that that would take forever to unpack. I'd just say we know at least one doctor (ssbains) is onboard as a shareholder. Others will follow.

The argument that an approved vaccine will hurt Ifenprodil as an approved treatment. rom everything I've read to date, a vaccine will not thwart the spread of COVID-19 for the foreseeable future. More specificlly, the USA has taken a "go it alone" "America First" approach to a covid vaccine. The entire globe has viewed that decision as a collosal mistake. There is no gaurantee the USA will come up with a "proven" effective vaccine and the politics continue to get in the way of the facts about the science. We have a conspiracy theorist at the helm and Anti-vaxxer movement is at an alltime high. I see USA in deep trouble moving towards the next wave of COVID-19 coupled to influenza season. Effective treatments for covid will be the frontline defense in 2021 to reduce mortality.

Lastly, the argument about data results coming in late December is premature:

“We are very pleased with the enrollment rate considering we started the study less than 30 days ago,” said Christopher J. Moreau CEO of Algernon Pharmaceuticals. “We should see an increase in the number of patients enrolling per week as the study progresses."

If we assume the trial will enroll 50 patients per month, let's also assume 50 patients will be enrolled in September, and 50 patients will be enrolled in October. That means last patient is enrolled by end of October 2020. Tack on 2 weeks of dosing and 2 weeks of follow up, and the trial ends end of November 2020. A data readout would fall in line with exactly what B O B stated - around Christmas time.

So a data readout prior to December will heavily rely on an increase of enrollment over the next 30 days. Surely it's possible, but is it probable? I dunno. What I do know is SK taught me a valuable lesson. Which is Algernon is at the mercy of COVID-19. It's an invisible target hat we're aiming at for patient enrollment. Everytime someone brings up the statistical failure of the SK clinical trial, their effectively arguing for human beings to contract a killer disease known as COVID-19. So wanting a faster timeline to data results is an argument for further infection of mankind. i'm not here to pass judgement. We all fall short in the eyes of our creator.

Romans 3:23 KJV

That is something CJM has reiterated many times thus far. Which is less infection is a good thing. i think CJM's heart is in the right place. Algernon doesn't have a treasure trove of money like big pharma. Bifg pharma can spread their chips all over the global map to get the number of patients they need as fast as humanly possible. Algernon has to work more strategically to get an outcome. The numbers weren't even there for Algernon to feasibly run an trial in Canada. That's a good indicator how cutthroat the covid angle is amoungst all competitors. CJM stated big pharma had the pick of the litter in Canada sewed up. Big pharma already has relationships with all hospitals 24/7/365. But I digress...

The bottom line is Algernon remains on pace to provide shareholders a data readout in Q4 2020.

I remain long throughout data readouts:

Q4 Q1 Q2

COVID/Chronic Cough/Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

GL2ALL@AGNPF

Just 1 opinion,

/////AMG

Postscript

When it's all said and done, Dr. Mark Williams is the guy we're all betting on. Doc is trying to build what he calls an "Arsenal" of effective drugs.

Chronic Cough & IPF ~ Q1 & Q2 Data Readout