Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[HappyAlways]

My analysis by role for your discussion:

SCOTUS - the judges have no personal interest in the GSEs. NWS is clearly illegal. They will rule that NWS is illegal and the NWS over-payment is to be returned to the GSEs. The only variant is whether the refund should carry 10% interest.

SM - some personal interest, but more on keeping his 2nd term as Treasury Secretary. Prefers bipartisan support and follow the law to play safe. His long inaction is to wait for the court. So, he will follow the SCOTUS verdict.

MC - he is very conservative. He will keep things going slowly, so he can finish his 5-year term. He does not mind to spend more time on formality, again to play safe. The revised capital requirement takes ages to conclude. My guess is he will follow the plan (to finish the capitalization in 2022 or longer) to complete the RRR. If it takes longer, he may have a 2nd term.

My - hold until all things settled or I need the money somewhere else. I believe that RRR will eventually happen. Hope that I am lucky enough to get 4~5 times return.

Please feel free to provide your analysis.