Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[Empiricst1]

Family man. This is traditional public health and you can google the numbers you want lots of ways. Play around. You pick a month in the past and compare it to this month. You make adjustments for any systemic issues like flu, etc. that are different from an "average month." Any differences you ascribe to the new variable (i.e. death coming from covid). Then do another month, and another, etc. This is the process that was used 20 or so years ago to find out how many died in Chicago's deadly Heat Wave. You pick a month (or a week, or a day, etc.) during the heat wave and compare the death rates then, to those in another time period, after adjusting for any ("non expected, or nonstandard events). So, your instinct it right on. You can easily project covid related deaths, though it will get harder if there is a flu season, lots of people killed from a natural event (i.e. 3,000 from Katrina). Notice that when you do the math you will probably find that the "official" covid deaths are substantially lower than the "expected or actual" counts. MY guess is from 10-50% lower. See what you come up with. Again, you are comparing existing deaths from expected deaths, adjusting for "outlier deaths). Simple in concept, but with lots of math, but my bet is someone has already posted it, probably Johns Hopkins or another quality research lab.