American Bio Medica Corp (ABMC)

[bk1287]

Current State of $ABMC----PLEASE READ

Hey All,

So I figured i'd put together a huge write-up on the current state of $ABMC. Obviously, there's been a lot of disappointment lately, but I think there is a reason for optimism. I wanted to spell everything out and clear up some confusion given that I've fortunately had good e-mail communication with Melissa. If you want this stickied, let me know. So first, I wanted to start with the chart:

The Chart
One of the huge positives of ABMC is the current state of the chart. While a lot might laugh, take a look at some of the indicators. For one, we keep bouncing off the bottom of the RSI which at the moment says we're way oversold. We were at "appropriate" levels around $.90-$1.10. The MACD shows that we're due for an upswing if we get information that excites new investors. They'll see that it's way oversold and it'll be a time to pounce. We currently have support at .26 based off the 200 SMA.



Q2

Obviously we're waiting on Q2 numbers, but we have a rough idea on what Q2 sales should look like. We're likely looking around $1.5 million in revenue with very strong profit margins. As Melissa indicated in an 8-K prior, up until June 26th, ABMC had done a little over a million in covid sales leaving a few days left in the quarter for additional sales. Given how other drug tests sales had been affected by covid, I think $1.5 mil is a fair estimate.

Shipment Delays

Also indicated on that 8-K was the mentioning of logistics issues/shipment delays. ABMC only started shipping product in May. Those issues were resolved and as of 8/4, had been resolved as indicated in the below e-mail exchange:

Me:
In your most recent filings, you expressed logistical issues with China and getting the tests. Have those since been resolved or are you still facing issues?

Melissa:
In the filing we did state that there were initially issues with supply due to specific regulatory events that occurred from March 2020 until May 2020. Our filing was just made last week. If the issues were continuing, we would have indicated that in the document.

Distribution

We all know that we have distribution through many channels including Allgenericos. The biggest question that we've been waiting for months to hear about was if the tweet by Allgenericos was legitimate. If it was, we should start seeing some of those sales in Q3 given the Q2 shipment delays. Also worth noting that as others have pointed out, Allgenericos now has a US website. Here is the website: https://allgenericos.us/

Here is the infamous tweet stating ordering of large quantities for distribution from ABMC:


In addition, we know that we have large distribution in the state of Louisiana. As we know now, we don't have a huge contract in place with them, however we are the preferred vendor for ordering based off of the governor's website here:
Page 47: https://www.cassidy.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Cassidy%20Disaster%20Guide%20-%20Coronavirus%20June%209.pdf


Q3/Future/Sales

At this point, we don't know what the future holds for ABMC. We do know that Melissa has stated that she plans to get the stock price back on track by committing to filing on time going forward (documented in the most recent 8-K), releasing material info as it comes, and putting up sales. Here recent e-mail to me regarding saliva testing gives optimism that ABMC could look to break into another LOB (line of business). Here is the quote:

We continually review new products on the market (including those for Covid-19) and look for products that would be a compliment to the Rapid AB test we are selling. We are aware of the Saliva Direct PCR system and its recent EUA issuance over the weekend. It does seem to have advantages over the PCR nasal systems (not as uncomfortable as swabs and their testing platform (machine) is supposed to be more flexible than many of the PCRs currently on the market and it runs in half the time of most PCRs). This test should not be confused with AB testing; it is a diagnostic.

Some other things to get excited about include Hillsborough County announcing that they're offering free antibody testing. The county has a population of nearly 1.5 million people. If they are ordering from us again (after there initial 44k order in the spring), we could see a nice boost in sales from this alone. Here's the link: https://www.hillsboroughcounty.org/en/media-center/press-releases/2020/08/13/free-covid-19-antibody-testing-offered-in-hillsborough

CEO
At this point, we know who Melissa is. A lot aren't fans of hers which we know. She's ultra-conservative, as is her board. She's not going to pump PR. To her credit, she has been relatively responsive on e-mail. While we can place fault on her for not submitting the Q1 10Q on time to the auditors, for Q2 it seems like it's more on the auditors' hands. ABMC did give them approximately two weeks to review the file to be able to submit on time (we know this based off of prior e-mail correspondence with Melissa), however it's now been nearly three weeks of no returned Q. This is not normal. After speaking with numerous people on here who have family, friends, etc. who work for publicly traded companies, we've come to a conclusion that it should take a week-a week and a half tops. The hope is that Melissa will consider a new CPA firm if this happens again.

I-Hub
Yes, I'm doing one on I-Hub. Listen, I get the frustration here. I've been here since the beginning of April and some have been bagholding longer then me. What I will say is that as others have mentioned, I-Hub has A LOT of members and this board is commonly one of the most read. While I understand the reasoning behind the negativity, etc., please remember that outside investors on i-hub do read these posts prior to making an investment, even if it's not their driving factor (at least I would hope it wouldn't be). As a result, for the sake of the PPS, if we can, please try to keep it at a minimum. It's in our best long-term interest.

Conclusion
This has been a heck of a roller coaster ride filled with mixed emotions. There's a lot to be frustrated about, but there's still a reason for hope. While it'll likely take a combination of sales and either a 13G or PR to get us back to dollar land, it's happened before and it could happen again. Don't forget that we all said we needed to see Q2 and Q3 sales to get excited because we knew Q1 would be a disaster. Well, it's coming soon and if Melissa surprises us, we likely won't see these prices for a very long time. If you read this far, thanks and let's hope next week is the week we start the reversal back to where we all think this stock should be.