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NY Natural Gas Futures (NG) - Knee Jerk High »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 29, 2020

NY Natural Gas Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. It closed today at 2657 and is trading up about 21% for the year from last year's settlement of 2189. Up to now, this market has been rising for this month going into August reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. while it is still trading above last month's high of 1937.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

The NY Natural Gas Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2019 moving into 2020. Clearly, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals to date.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Natural Gas Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 2649.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 24th at 2743, which was up 9 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 22nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 2743 to 2491. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of August 24th reaching 2743 has exceeded the previous high of 2162 made back during the week of May 4th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 21 weeks overall.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of November 2019 for seven months. Since that low made in June, the market has rallied for 1 month. Meanwhile, the past month has witnessed a rally of 18% percent. A month-end closing below 1605 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 1937 to maintain a near-term upward rally.

This market is trading below that high of November 2019 which was 2905 by more than 5 percent. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.

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