I can't just call this a duck - yet. And I have use that analogy to win an award protest argument at the Pentagon - a long time ago. I keep going back to the question as to why? Why the milestones? Why the secrecy? The secrecy part is easy. Because you don't want to confirm any speculation, because it can lead to unintended competitive consequences. You can't predict other competitors actions or future events. Finito. It's the milestones that suck all of the air out of the room. Here's my speculation as to why milestones? And why there's a conditional agreement for development, for the next 8 months(?). I'm pretty sure Roll presented a calendar of events that matched up into spring of next year.(?) The loan sets the tone of the conditional partnership as friendly. Otherwise TMDI pays off the loan early. The development agreement is the key. MDT tied up all of TMDI resources. And turned them into an extended courtship and a job interview. By that I mean, even if JNJ, or an other competitor wanted a friendly partnership with TMDI, there's nothing left of TMDI except SPORT in its current functional condition. JNJ can't get SPORT b/c MDT has the IP tied up, by mutual agreement with TMDI not paying off the loan. Those are the handcuffs. TMDI has no additional human resources or capacity to manage any other product development. Those milestones 3 & 4 I'm guessing have to do with integrating the IP into the multi-port. Which is another reason why TMDI established the office in Charolette - b/c Genova lives there. (That piece fits too). However, I think the multi-port is NOT the priority. It's secondary to SPORT, which is why MDT made TMDI get the $18M. If it turns out the integration is more difficult b/c of lack of engineering resources or other etc.... the agreement can be modified. Also, having an MDT person on the Oversight Committee for this possibility fits. (Pieces must fit.) So again, I speculate that a friendly investor, or associated company of MDT bought that offering. I don't know how JNJ, or others can do it now, except a long, slow, up-hill slog to find or develop IP to compete/participate. Or, JNJ could try to buy MDT later. Wow. This only fits if JNJ gets a Corona vaccine (which fits with their primary line of business-pharmaceuticals), to generate tons of cash, and then JNJ wants to boost their Med Device division. Big if's. I think JNJ's out of the RAS business for a while, if not forever. JNJ's MK is 360B, with $17B in cash. So that would mean any major accumulation on the open market would be hostile, compared to the present conditions between MDT and TMDI. Also, we'd see this major accumulation well in advance, and other major investors would jump on-board to get in on the action. This is all conjecture. Isn't guessing fun? I don't know what other dots there are to connect. IMO. Roll, if this is what you meant before, sorry it took me so long to connect these (speculative) dots. Could you try to write a little more clearly so I don't have to think so hard? Good luck to all. Regards, BK.
