Value Microcaps Pick Six Lotto 04

[lentinman]

Rule Modification for PSL5:

As I have stated, the rules are made up by a majority of BW, SSK and myself. In the case of this rule modification, I was opposed, but outvoted 2-1.

The new rule will be four (vs three) transactions for PSL5.

Here are the relevant statistics. We only had 2 transactions in PSL2, so I'm not going to bother with it. In both PSL3 and PSL4, we had three transactions.

Contest   Contestants   Used All 3   Percentage 
 PSL3          88             19          22% 
 PSL4          85             27          32%

Personally, my opinion is that if 32% of the people used all three available transactions, the only meaningful number is that 68% did NOT. Thus, I see zero urgency to increase the number of available transactions. Of course, 32% is more than 22%, but we have such a small sample, we cannot assume that PSL5 would be a higher number than 32%.

I think it could be argued that if we allowed 10 transactions that some percentage of us (maybe 10%+) would use them all. Of course, it is also true that just because 32% did, doesn't mean that a single one of those people would necessarily use a 4th transaction (if available).

I will strenuously object to anything beyond 4 because even at 4 it is more trading (on average) than the typical VMC'er does from all the information I have gathered. Since PSL should represent (as close as possible) real life, any more than 4 would be ridiculous IMO.

Finally, the number of people that used all 6 of their transactions in both PSL3 and PSL4 is 13 out of 54 people that participated in both. That's 24%. Again, based on that, I see no urgency at all to increase the number.

Clearly, some will like it and BW and SSK have their own reasons, but I'm just presenting the statistical facts. And, fact #1 is that 2 is greater than 1.

Len