Sunday, August 16, 2020 11:40:10 AM
An 'Unexpected' Systemic Crisis Is Assured
Sun, 08/16/2020 Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com
Downturns in bank credit expansion always lead to systemic problems. We are on the edge of such a downturn, which thanks to everyone’s focus on the coronavirus, is unexpected.
We can now identify 23 March as the date when markets stopped worrying about deflation and realised that monetary inflation is the certain outlook. That day, the Fed promised unlimited monetary stimulus for both consumers and businesses, and the dollar began to fall.
The downturn in the dollar, reflecting the switch from deflationary fears to expectations of monetary inflation. The dollar lost its deflation safe-haven status and was even sold for other currencies, particularly the euro. At the same time every dollar hedge, from equities to commodities, and even 'Bitcoin' began to rise. Financially, this is when the tide turned, and if the banks were solid, their share prices should have joined the upward trend.
We have seen how 23 March became the turning point for markets, which spinning on a sixpence adjusted expectations from credit deflation to unlimited inflation of fiat currencies. It is also the moment the clock started ticking for a full and final market and currency crisis. A consequence has been the start of dollar weakness, likely to persist. Foreign flows out of the dollar and dollar assets are likely to continue, or even accelerate. With foreigners being increasingly net sellers of US financial assets, not only will the foreign exchange rate for the dollar continue to suffer, but with foreign divestment it will be increasingly difficult for the Fed to maintain the financial asset bubble.
Inward investment flows through the Hong Kong – Shanghai connect has been effectively stopped by US sanctions. As noted above, banks such as HSBC are likely to be targeted next by the US administration, extending extra systemic risk into the Chinese banking system through their banking relationships.
We are moving into this contractionary phase of credit with some significant banks dangerously leveraged. That is usual ahead of a credit crisis, but never to the extent we are experiencing today. And thanks to Covid-19, this danger is universally ignored.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turkey-hit-bank-runs-currency-panic-locals-sell-their-cars-and-houses-buy-gold-while-lira?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
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