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Basically, when economies are open, covid is a

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luisWinthorpIII   Wednesday, 08/12/20 10:10:37 PM
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Basically, when economies are open, covid is a market catalyst

The market doesn’t care if your grandma or your baby sister dies of covid - it only cares that the economy is open for business.

And the vaccine will make epicenter stocks explode. It would be wise to get into airline and hotel stocks - not sure if right now is the time or possibly a week or 2 from now till they hit a lower shelf, but the time is approaching where either vaccine news will come out from any of the vaccine manufacturers or we will get an agreement on stimulus. And keep in mind, with multiple manufactures, PRs seem to be coming out every week - so there is plenty of vaccine news to prop the market up for now. And Assuming there is any money at all for airlines, epicenter stocks will explode. This is all in anticipation over the next few months and will continue to prop the market up until either event occurs. There will be small pockets of opportunity for vxx (if you time it right) but ultimately it’s almost impossible to time those windows just right to make it worth your while. If the stimulus comes well before October, there will likely be plenty of opportunity with vxx because the FED is just about out of bullets and the Biden polls are going to create uncertainty for Wall Street. The only thing that can save the market after the stimulus is a vaccine. And the fact that we have these major catalysts in place is not good for taking a position in VXX long term. And if you do, be careful, trump could continue to use executive power to push the mRNA trial along. He is not happy that Putin beat him to the punch (regardless if the Russian vaccine is good or not) and he knows a vaccine could be the difference in him getting re-elected. He is going to be pushing hard to move as fast as possible, so dont be surprised if we get expedited vaccine results and emergency FDA approval sooner than the estimated clinical trial completion date states. And with trumps entire election on the line, with so much to lose, there is a good chance there could be some political intervening going on to ensure mRNA (or a worthy competitor) wins regardless of what the science really says. Obviously, a vaccine is not the only factor at play for trump, but it is the catalyst that will get the epicenter portions of the market rebooted and if the economy looks good prior to the election - he will get the credit regardless if he deserves it. So there are major catalysts in the market ahead of us with big Political incentives for the current administration to get the economy to all time highs prior to the election. As a result, stay away from vxx for now. If mRNA fails though (or competitors if they actually get there first), if you are not in Vxx before the news comes out, you will have missed a major opportunity. For me, thats just too much of a gamble. There’s no evidence from top officials that any concerns are present with the ongoing trials of the major vaccine players.

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