Tuesday, August 11, 2020 1:34:44 PM
We now know how fantastical these projections are. I read here every day how Elite has replaced TEVA in every Walgreen's across the known universe, yet the quarterly revenue for the entire Elite formulary is around $7M per quarter. This includes both Adderall IR and XR. You'd have to multiply the current quarter revenues by 6X to achieve your numbers. I'd be happy to be wrong, but I have realistic expectations. With a billion shares outstanding, there will need to be several multiples of current revenue to move the needle on share price in any meaningful way, and even that will likely be offset by further R&D spending with even more shareholder dilution. It should be obvious by now that the Adderalls alone have not changed and will not change the current trajectory of the company. It should also be obvious that Concerta is a long way off.
Meanwhile, with opioid ANDA's in tact, we could already be sitting at $100M in annual revenue. Ignoring this fact doesn't make it less true or less important. Nasrat is a failed CEO whose destructive decisions have had a major negative effect on this company's future. He doesn't deserve our blind respect. He has properly earned our deep suspicion about his motives and abilities.
Occam's razor: the simplest solution is most likely the right one.
Hanlon's razor: never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
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