Market Direction and Stock Trends

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:::: Dow Jones Industrials Index (DJIA) - Moving Higher »» Daily Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 8, 2020

Dow Jones Industrials closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. The market closing today at 2743348 is immediately trading down about 3.87% for the year from last year's settlement of 2853844. Up to now, this market has been rising for 4 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. while it is still trading above last month's high of 2707133.


RARE YEARLY OUTSIDE REVERSAL

After exceeding last year's high of 2870166 and penetrating last year's low of 2263841 this market is currently trading below the open for the year of 2863897 after declining from the new high of 1821365 down to 2956857. As long as this market remains below the open yet above last year's low of 2263841 on a closing basis, then a year-end closing in this posture will warn that we could have a knee-jerk low in place this year.

DAILY TIMING ARRAY PERSPECTIVE

On the Daily Level, looking at the array, there was a prospect for a decline moving into Fri. 7th with the opposite trend thereafter into Tue. 11th. We have overall 2 Daily Directional Change targets ahead and 1 that also aligns with a main turning points on the top line of the Array. This target in time is Tue. 18th. Directional Change targets that align with the top line for turning points often unfold as the main cyclical events. Don't forget, a Directional Change can also be a sharp dramatic move in the same direction, not just a change in direction.

PIVOT POINTS

Looking at our Pivot Points, the market is trading above one indicating pivot implying that this market is in a positive position with support at 2735382 and resistance at 2768977 and 2774238 for this next trading session.

DAILY PIVOT POINTS
2768977
2774238
2735382

Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 2730111 and 2735894. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 2747074 2753380. Opening above this area will cause it to become support.

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RARE SUPER POSITION EVENT

We have elected two Weekly Bullish Reversal the week of August 3rd. However, we have also elected a Long-Term Bearish Reversal in a Superposition Event warning that this may prove to be a high.
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NEAR-TERM OVERVIEW

The Dow Jones Industrials has been in an uptrend for the past 6 days closing above the previous session's high. Currently, the market is trading bullish above all four indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 1.14% from the previous session low. Our projected target closing resistance for the next session stands at 2770023, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Nevertheless, this session closed below our projection closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 2767446 is approaching a high. Our immediate short-term Stochastic is turning down but the intermediate and long-term remain positive. Yet our Energy model is still positive implying the market is still pressing higher but is nearing a high soon.

This market has been making higher highs showing there has been near-term strength.

Bear in mind that we have made a new high this week changing the Weekly Bearish Reversals once this week is concluded. However, we have also made a new monthly high exceeding the previous month's high reaching 2745624 which also means the immediate Monthly Bearish Reversals will change once this month is concluded.

Up to now, the market remains unchanged within support still above our system indicators while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish. At this instant, the market remains within our trading envelope in a bullish position.

This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment. However, an opening BELOW 2733990 in the next session would warn that the high of this session may stand at least temporarily.

We did close below the previous session's Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance indicator which was 2743335 settling at 2738698 gesturing that the market is not in a breakout mode at that precise moment. The current Projected Breakout Resistance for this session was 2759793 which we still closed below. The Projected Breakout Resistance indicator for the next session will be 2763645. Now this immediate indicator in the current trading session, is above the current close offering projected resistance. Therefore, we either must open above it and hold or close above it to imply the rally is still in play. Otherwise, failure to exceed 2763645 during the next session warns the upward momentum may be lost and a retest of support becomes possible.

Intraday Projected Breakout Resistance
Today...... 2759793
Previous... 2743335
Tomorrow... 2763645

HYPOTHETICAL MODEL ANALYSIS

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Daily Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 2745624. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 0, 2653438, 2679419, and 2692478, whereas a close below the previous low 2722355 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

Hypothetical Models, we see that we have Weekly Bearish Reversals that would be generated if we see another new high penetrating 2745624. These hypothetical Tentative Bearish Reversals would rest at 2278962, 2552351, 2640287, and 2899566, whereas a close below the previous low 2653438 would tend to suggest that these Tentative Reversals will then become fixed as long as the high holds thereafter for at least several days. Moreover, the election of any of these Tentative Bearish Reversals during this next session would signal a decline is unfolding and that such a high may stand. However, if we continue to make new highs, then these Tentative Reversals will be replaced by a new set until the high becomes fixed.

REVERSAL SYSTEM

Looking at our Reversal System, our next Daily Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 2744738 while the Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 2676621. This provides a very near-term 7.17% trading range. Using the Weekly level, the next Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 2800490 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 2599497. This provides a 7.17% trading range. Now moving to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 2870167 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 2171252. This, naturally, gives us the main broad trading range of a 24%.

REVERSAL MAP SYSTEM
-- DAILY -- | -- WEEKLY -- | - MONTHLY - |

2946350 | 1 | 2956858 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
2941540 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2919048 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2914654 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2814930 | 2 | 2840294 | 1 | 2870167 | 1 |
2758022 | 3 | 2800490 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
2744738 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
----------------------------------------
2676621 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 2720437 | 1 |
2659781 | 1 | ....... | 0 | 2661672 | 1 |
2601358 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2581624 | 1 | 2599497 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
2581160 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2577811 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2563740 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2509615 | 1 | 2509615 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
2503166 | 1 | 2507840 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
2497102 | 1 | 2497102 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
2445593 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2437087 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2429406 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2407021 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2405997 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2386890 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2364520 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2336115 | 1 | 2336115 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
2323331 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2306763 | 1 | 2309534 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
2294187 | 2 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |
2278961 | 1 | 2278961 | 1 | ....... | 0 |
2263444 | 1 | ....... | 0 | ....... | 0 |

WIDE-RANGING CLOSING TREND CHANGE POINTS

Change in Trend Indicator
Daily ........ 2688928
Weekly ....... 2613004
Monthly ...... 2278927
Quarterly .... 2309890
Yearly ....... 1894701

Note: Negative means the market is trading below that level on a closing basis. The broader change in trend takes place only on the monthly to yearly levels. Those looking for exit strategies may look at these numbers on a closing basis per level.

Up to now, we have exceeded last month's high so we have therefore generated a new What If Monthly Bearish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 2278962 and a month end closing beneath this level will be a sell signal for now.

Currently, we have broken below last month's low and that means we have generated a new What-If Monthly Bullish Reversal which lies below the present trading level at the general area of 471974 and a month end closing above this level will be a buy signal for now.

We closed the previous month at 2581288 after making a new high up three months from the low established back in June during 2020 at 2710234. Immediately, the market is somewhat bullish on our monthly indicating range models which has moved up from the previous month yet wasneutral.

BROADER OVERVIEW

The Dow Jones Industrials has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2020, which has been a run of 11 years warning that timing wise a pause remains possible. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

This market is still what we classify as a Bull Market given it remains above all indicators on the Yearly indicating models. However, from the Weekly to quarterly timing levels, the market remains positive but showing signs of overhead resistance.

This past year alone, saw a sharp price decline of about 16%.

RISK FACTORS
Dow Jones Industrials Risk Table

----------------- UPSIDE RISK ----- DOWNSIDE RISK ---

DAILY......... 2744738 | 0.05% | 2676621 | 2.432% |
WEEKLY........ 2800490 | 2.082% | 2599497 | 5.243% |
MONTHLY....... 2870167 | 4.622% | 2171252 | 20.85% |
QUARTERLY..... 2695182 | -1.75% | 2171252 | 20.85% |
YEARLY........ 0 | 36.5% | 1545055 | 23.45% |

DAILY TECHNICAL OVERVIEW

After the historical high was established during 2020, a major low was created on 03/23/2020 at 1821365 which was 99 days from that major high. The Uptrend line resides at 2657776 providing the technical underlying support. The top of the Uptrend Channel stands at 2765681 which provides the general overall trading channel and only exceeding that on a closing basis will signal a real breakout to the upside while a break of the bottom defined by the Uptrend Line will signal a move to the downside thereafter.

Meanwhile, the Downtrend Line from that major high of 2020 to the subsequent reaction high of 2476477 formed 55 days thereafter resides at 1512266. This line has provided technical support which the market has been trading above. Given the fact that the market is trading well above that technical indicator implies that any potential support would be during a short-term panic sell off. The post high low was established at 1821365. We have not elected any Bullish Reversals from that important post high low on the daily level.

The more recent Downtrend Line constructed from the last high of 2707133 to the subsequent reaction high of 2703524 stands at 2694141 while drawing a channel provides us with support at 2536467. A break of this support with a closing below it will suggest a correction is unfolding. However, an intraday penetration of this support with a close back above would suggest that market could pause briefly.

Now incorporating our Energy Models, the fact that the market is making new intraday highs in price and our Energy Models are rising, this market is holding right now for the past 3 days. As long as our Energy Models hold above the former low made on 08/04/2020.

OVERALL TREND

The Dow Jones Industrials is still in a bullish position on yearly level of our model suggesting the trend has not been reversed. The Dow Jones Industrials has penetrated last year's high and low leaving that as an 11 year high and an outside reversal to the downside. The Dow Jones Industrials is in a neutral position on the quarterly short-term level of our model while the broader term is neutral to bullish implying that the long-term bull market is still holding. Looking at the weekly short-term level, this market is still bullish on our momentum and trend indicatorsFocusing on the daily level, this market is in an immediate bullish position. Overall, the posture is generally bullish for now.

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