When will we know whether Moderna’s vaccine works? Now that the company has begun testing the vaccine in a pivotal Phase 3 trial, which aims to enroll up to 30,000 people, the answer depends on, among other things, how long it takes for enough people in the control group of the study to get sick with Covid-19.
As the world waits for answers on Moderna’s (ticker: MRNA) vaccine, the length of the wait depends on the intersection of epidemiology, statistics, and biology. In a note out Monday, Jefferies analyst Michael Yee has crunched the numbers and has an estimate as to when Moderna will be able to offer answers: sometime around Halloween.
“Based on our statistical model, we could be in for a ‘Halloween Treat’ with data achieving statistical significance potentially as early as Oct,” Yee wrote. He said that data from another Phase 3 trial testing Pfizer’s (PFE) Covid-19 vaccine could come around the same time, if not a bit earlier.
Based on assumptions about the drug’s efficacy, the current infection rates, and commentary from Moderna, Yee thinks that the study will hit its primary endpoint by Oct. 29. That assumes that the vaccine is roughly 60% effective and that infection rates in U.S. hot spots remains high.
Data five days before the presidential election leaves open the theoretical possibility that the Food and Drug Administration could face pressure from the White House to rapidly authorize the vaccine, a possibility examined in a Barron’s feature last month, though the window is extremely tight.
Yee wrote that he believed that the Moderna Phase 3 trial had a 65% chance of working.
Shares of Moderna are up 278.8% so far this year, and 469.6% over the past 12 months. The company has a market capitalization of $29.1 billion, despite having no approved products.
It is the largest biopharmaceutical company in the world by market cap by far with no approved products. Of the 15 analysts tracked by FactSet who follow the company, 12 rate it a Buy and three rate it a Hold.
The stock was up 1.1% on Monday morning.
