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Re: AgeOfReason post# 26012

Sunday, 08/02/2020 10:50:42 AM

Sunday, August 02, 2020 10:50:42 AM

Post# of 59476
I appreciate your DD. Obviously you spent a fair amount of time writing your detailed reply proving such. I have done my DD also unfortunately I am not going to listen to all conference calls again and read all PR and filings again to hear or find the phrase "exceed expectations moving forward". I know what I heard and I know it was more than a few months ago both times. That's not as relevant as the research you just posted. Hiwever the company will reach EBITDA+ on 50MW a year generation. That may very well be fiscal 2022 for the first fiscal year of + EBITDA. They will be at 41.4MW generation by the end of 2020 Calendar year. Each quarter moving forward should show increasing generation revenue. Q3 should be about $1 million higher than Q2, although the other revenue catagories may drop slightly as they were rather high in Q2. Expect total revenue very similar for Q3 as Q2. Expenses should be pretty steady until they increase production to over 55MW run rate which won't be until announcing a new order or the remaining 32.4MW of PPAs from the LIPA RFP awards.

As far as going away or not being around to service projects. There have been 2 separate individuals on the boards that worked at higher level positions in the Navy whom said the same thing. The Navy didn't get into business with Fuelcell without doing more diligence than anyone on these boards. DOE, XOM, Exelon, Drax, Toyota, and the rest of those companies have done more diligence and more intelligence involved in this than you or I. Their reputation and share price is largely related to past performance and failure related to past leadership. I know what Few said and I believe him because of his history prior to FCEL and recent history since joining the team. He has his team constantly focussed on priorities which include continuous improvement of their financial profile. The new believers will believe soon enough. And when they do, $3 or under will have been an unbelievable entry point. Just like when I said under $1 was and under $2 was. But they can wait until the new contracts are signed, production ramps up, Posco pays $200 million and we become the 1st Fuel Cell company to be profitable moving forward if they want. They jus have to pay substantially more per share. 2022 this is way over $20.
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