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Re: jfran post# 127422

Tuesday, 07/21/2020 10:22:45 AM

Tuesday, July 21, 2020 10:22:45 AM

Post# of 139628
Influencing the market? tl;dr Maybe, we are focused on the wrong action. I'm going back to Stock Market 101. Please don't be offended. I'm just checking assumptions.

Buying pressure increases the High for the day. In general, it doesn't increase the low for the day. The low is controlled by sellers, whether they be a holder exiting a position or shorts. If EVERYONE refuses to sell, regardless of the buying pressure or lack thereof, the price will not fall. In a natural market, holders control everything and could cause near infinite prices (How much did the Da Vinci manuscript sell for? $304M!!) In a natural market, prices won't fall unless some holder wants it to. But, we are not in a natural market. What if it's not a holder that is selling? The short sellers sell something they don't own. Which is entirely why they are allowed nee, encouraged, in the stock market. They are the ones that create an active market. A short could sell at say 6 when no holder wants to sell at that price. Yes, they are taking the gamble that the price will be lower in the future. (Longs take the same future risk.) But, without outside interest, shorts have the advantage, prices tend to fall.

In a nutshell, in the absence of buzz prices fall. ONLY when there is buzz do prices rise.

I know this is stock basics 101 but, I think the point is missed that without NEWS and NEW buyers, the LOW price won't move because the Shorts control that not the Longs. Buying pressure doesn't necessarily discourage shorts because they are simply betting that the buying pressure won't last. The big difference is that longs hold something of intrinsic value and may never be forced to act e.g. sell. Sadly, I own a couple of stocks worth only the value of the paper they are printed on. BUT, I never have to sell them. I can wait an infinite amount of time. Unlike the longs, the shorts are required to act at some time in the future.

To drive up the low, we need to discourage the shorts. The way to do that is to make it unprofitable or risky. Driving up the high of the day does neither of those things unless it breaks through the market. Moving the trading range doesn't discourage the shorts. It may actually encourage them if the trading range expands.
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Total Trades:
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