SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[DowDeva]

For right now I think the market is about to explode upwards. Yes, I know I have changed my mind. I was influenced by the upcoming Hurst 20 week low in early August. 20 weeks is not a small trough and usually the market starts winding down a week or so before hand.


According to David Hickson of Sentient Trader, if the market is extremely bullish during an upcoming low, (20 weeks is not an insignificant low ) what will happen is that the market will peak very shortly (right translated peak), with very little warning before the low and there will be a strong decline after. Very scary.

The recent black swan event was one such occasion. The market peaked just before the early 4.5 year low (the peak was right translated and extremely bullish), then crashed into the low.

The subsequent furious rally that ensued after the March low is also the signature of an important low. It should have a fast and furious feel with a lot of momentum. The fact that the market moved so strongly from the March low is confirmation that it was indeed the 4.5 year low.

This is just a hypothesis going forward, but I am thinking there may be a similar fast and furious decline at the end of next week after earnings that may only last a few days.

300 would scare the heck out of everyone, for sure and then we should expect a ramp up to finish the peak of the 40 week cycle.

The 40 week trough is due around the end of December.