Mr. Plum,
You have raised several salient points -- all of which are worthy of discussion. Allow me to address one for the moment and I'll hopefully have time to come back to a couple of the others later this evening. If not, there are several other knowledgeable posters who may jump in with their opinions.
You asked, in part, "Someone clearly has confidence in this company, or is it ALL the Toby Smith effect?"
Tobin made his first recommendation of this stock somewhere around mid-March if memory serves me correctly. I believe he followed that up with another recommendation sometime in May.
If one looks at the 'Trading Volume' column in the chart below, it's pretty easy to draw the conclusion that the "Toby Factor" was at least partly responsible. Having said that, I do not believe he is totally responsible for the stock's movement this year. Why? With the exception of February and October, every other month had decent trading volume of 4.5m-5m shares or better.
Month Trading Vol % of OS Closing High Closing Low
Jan 4,957,970 11.67 $0.84 $0.36
Feb 2,153,482 5.07 $1.01 $0.67
Mar 8,837,109 20.79 $2.20 $0.91
Apr 4,423,515 10.41 $1.94 $1.44
May 9,058,594 21.31 $2.85 $1.75
June 4,535,941 10.67 $2.50 $1.93
July 4,957,074 11.66 $3.37 $2.38
Aug 6,123,020 14.41 $4.05 $2.63
Sept 4,801,173 10.55 $3.89 $2.69
Oct 2,431,664 5.34 $3.30 $2.51
Nov 8,913,179 19.59 $4.09 $1.92
Notes: % of OS based on 42.5m shares Jan thru Aug; 45.5 Sept thru Nov
There have been several other things this year that (IMO) have impacted the stock's trading patterns.
Jan - The Chairman's Letter
Apr - The Heatron License Agreement
May - 7 Additional Patents Approved
June - Tom Spoke Before the NPE
Sept - Jarco License Agreement and Additional Patents Approved
Nov - CES Award and Jarco Mfg Agreement
And that's the short list; there's probably a few other highlights I've left off this list.
Am I happy as a Shareholder that he's here? Absolutely! Do I think his (subscribers') presence has added to the volatility? I cannot know for sure, but if pressed would likewise have to answer in the affirmative. Would we "survive" if he decided for whatever reason to back off of his extremely enthusiastic recommendations? Again, I'd have to answer with a resounding 'Yes!'
The wheels are in motion -- kinetic-like energy is now at work. Will we continue to see volatility? You bet! Is our outcome assured? I have absolutely no doubt about it.
Again, thanks for writing. You submitted an outstanding post!
gktignol
