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Saturday, 07/04/2020 8:22:45 AM

Saturday, July 04, 2020 8:22:45 AM

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BN Americas Coverage: I don’t have access to the full article, but what a surprise!!


New Trade Deal Set to Hinder AMLO goal of Energy Independence

The entrance into force of the new North American free trade deal USMCA came amid a steep drop in regional trade flows due to COVID-19 and US and Canadian concerns about the Mexican power market.
“There have been some issues with various aspects of regulation in the Mexican energy sector,” deputy US trade representative C.J. Mahoney said during a recent webinar hosted by the Baker Institute.
The USMCA entered into force on July 1. 

US NATURAL GAS AND MEXICAN ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
US trade representative Robert Lighthizer said a “free flow of energy” would occurr from the US to both Canada and Mexico as part of updated USMCA measures. In the short-term, that could spell greater US exports of natural gas to Mexico, undermining one of AMLO’s chief political goals, energy independence. 
In September 2019, the South Texas-Tuxpan natural gas pipeline started operations, and could in time transit 2.6Bf3/d (billion cubic feet a day) of gas into central Mexico. A fraction of that gas in the coming months will make its way to the Yucatán Peninsula thanks to the start of operations of the Cuxtal interconnection. Similarly, the Wahalajara pipeline network could enter operations in August, transiting another 400Mf3/d (million cubic feet a day) of US natural gas around northern Mexico.

FRACKING AND GAS STORAGE
According to Warren Levy, CEO of Jaguar E&P, a fundamental draw of Mexico’s gas-rich Burgos basin owes in part to its proximity to talent and technology in Houston. 
While fracking is not banned, AMLO opposes the technology and a fracking ban is in the senate.  
But should energy prices fully recover to pre-pandemic levels, it would make the Burgos basin again a prime spot for investors seeking to use US talent and technology for hydraulic fracking in the region, another source of integration in the two countries’ natural gas sectors. And while uncertainty exists in one sector of the power market, US natural gas looks set to gain greater presence in Mexico as a result of USMCA.
However, the prevalence of US natural gas need not lead to greater US influence in Mexico.
On Thursday, Mirage Energy CEO Michael Ward celebrated USMCA for “greatly opening up the cross-border energy sector.” Mirage recently secured US$4bn in financing to develop what would be the largest natural gas infrastructure project spanning the US-Mexico border. 
Ward said Mirage’s project will vest Mexico with greater energy security, by “giving the country a six-months’ supply of domestically stored natural gas, providing needed power in the event of a natural or political supply interruption.”

Also, the US recently authorized LNG shipments via rail, potentially opening up existing well-integrated railway nodes, such as Texas and Monterrey, to cryogenic LNG imports to Mexico.

REGULATIONS
Kenneth Smith-Ramos, a lead negotiator of the deal under the previous Mexican government, said the country must work so “that we don’t have regulatory backtracking that could affect the implementation of the USMCA.” He cited regulatory changes attempted since May that disadvantage renewables companies as a potential snag.
Since late June, the issue has intensified with high-level officials in both the US and Canada criticizing Mexico’s regulatory shifts. 
This could be a topic of conversation when President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) visits Donald Trump in Washington on July 8-9, AMLO’s first foreign trip since taking office in December 2018.

[article cut off]

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/new-free-trade-deal-set-to-hinder-amlo-goal-of-energy-independence