The Judas Sheep
In agricultural terms a Judas Sheep is used to help herd sheep into the slaughterhouse. The sheep resides on the opposite side of the fence near the intended herd to be harvested. It is induced to start walking up a ramp where the other sheep follow on the opposite side of the fence.
The Judas Sheep's path veers off and it is taken to the next area to led the next herd. The sheep that followed are slaughtered, processed, and sold as lamb chops, probably served with a side of mint jelly if you have a taste for it.
In the case of the short seller they are looking to get a few below market sales in. Either between their own accounts or not, so those that follow the spikes and dip will start walking up that ramp into the slaughterhouse.
The more sales the more sheepish traders slaughtered. Shorts can repeat this process many times until the following happens:
1. Traders wise up and understand what drives the volatility.
2. A material event occurs in which shorting becomes suicide.
3. A material event occurs in which the company folds and that's it.
4. Shorts get trapped in the volatility and they have to reset or opt for safer hunting grounds.
Our Situation
Based on HIV being in the bag the likely outcomes are scenarios events 2 and 4. COVID results will crush shorts sooner, HIV results will crush shorts later. A volatility trap can occur shortly after COVID results and speculation on an emergency phase 2 approval.
Why Scenarios 1 and 3 Are Off The Table
First and foremost very few traders break their bad habits of being dumb and panicky. Most of them have never sat down and watch large sums of money come and go, or have the stomach to watch the chart turn into tidal waves. So scenario 1 is not very likely, dumb rules the world.
Scenario 3 is unlikely for multiple reasons. First our CEO would dump his last dollar into the company. So funding through HIV approval and sales is a gimmie. 100 million shares being able to be sold helps raise funds. COVID results will be in the ballpark of EIND results based on the types of patients and severity treated in the EIND group.
What My Due Diligence And Gut Tells Me
We are going to get sniped at and weak hands will fold. The very same people shorting us will then try to ride any good news, well at least those leading the shorts. I am also confident in our science, CEO and the fact that shorts are resulting to dubious tactics to churn out a buck. I take the last part as a sign that it's last call for them and time to pound any last shots they can get in.
