Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[Scooter McCabe]

Assuming COVID and HIV in the bag asking for 100 plus isn't a problem. The assumption would be the science is solid for anything in Leronlimab's ballpark. Also it gets more expensive the more uses it get's approved for, so the new risk at that point is missing out on a drug that just became to expensive to buy.

HIV Market: 30 billion (Gilead has 16 billion of it)
Cancer Market: 63 billion
NASH Market: 5 billion
HvG Market: .5 billion
COVID Market: 9 billion
Alzheimer's Market: 12 billion
MS Market: 20 billion

So that is 139.5 billion in all the combine markets.

So let's assume we are the first credible COVID drug to market. That 9 billion is ours. Gilead's HIV drugs have crappy side effects and we would replace them easily, so assume 16 billion there.

We are at 25 billion already. Then for that remaing 114.5 billion. Let's assume we dominate NASH taking half the market share and .1 billion out of HvG. 27.1 billion. Now 112.4 is out there. Let's assume good results and in the first year of sales across the categories not accounted for we end up claiming 10% of the market share. there is 11.24 billion there.

That would total up to 38.34 billion in revenue. In context we are potentially half the revenue of major drug companies:

JNJ: 82 billion
Pfizer: 51.75 billion
P&G: 67.87 billion

Then there are companies that we would eclipsed:

Abbv: 32.75 billion (They are 96 bucks a share)
ABT: 31.9 billion (They are 88 a share)
Gilead: 22.45 billion (We would be the death of Gilead since taking away 16 billion of HIV revenue is the lifeblood of their company, that 74 a share would tumble)
Eli Lilly: 24.56 billion (162 bucks a share)
GSK: 33.75 billion (40 bucks a share)

What That Means To Me

Gilead would probably have to pay a King's ransom for us or get dethroned. You can imagine a lot of Gilead investors hoping ship as we ascend.

We make sense to acquire, having one drug that can cover a lot of diseases means low overhead if it replaces 6 other drugs that do the same thing. So that means better earnings reports and investors like that.

We make sense to acquire for growth in tight markets or gaining market dominance in others.

So 100 bucks is going to the starting point/hard floor/acquiring company's goal. That can happen if there are some sweet deals thrown the board's way. 115 would be respectable and everyone could claim a win to their investors. In my wildest dreams 130 bucks.