Saturday, June 27, 2020 10:02:10 AM
Autism Specturm Disorder is not rare disease (affects 1 in 59 adults) -
Each year approx 3.85 million children are born - which means approx 50,000 to 60,000 new ASD patients each year. As the ASD patients have same life span, the ASD population keeps increasing.
If you look at clinicaltrials site - there are 63 active trials in all phases - however there are only handful of new drugs in trial - Roche, Jansen and ZYNE. All other are repurposed drugs.
The Zygel results in phase 2 are really great compared to any other trials. So if they can repeat phase 2 results in phase 3 - it will be a slam dunk.
The co has only 24 million o/s shares - which translates to $50 for $1 Billion market cap. They have $60 million in cash and think they can go till H2-2021 but will need to raise money for new trials which is not a big deal for biotechs.
My family friend has austistic kid and on somewhat severe side. They have tried many options and few diet based trials. They will be ready to pay for any drug that reduces the intensity of the symptoms even by 20-30%.
With FX NDA in Q4-2020 and another results expected next quarter, the SP can move higher even before NDA submission.
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