Abet Chichi2

[chichi2]

Stkmen, i lived in the Netherlands long enough that i receive Social Security from them.

Over the years, one thing i learned, the currency market is a market as a non-professional, one must live in it to really play it, and best is to get advice from your locals. I found in the Netherlands that most of the businessmen i had contact with were playing it continuously. I would not attempt to advise you on it as i do not know.

While living in Europe it was possible for me to choose monthly whether to be paid in US or in Netherlands currency. At that time, it was to my advantage to be paid in Netherlands Currency as the Dollar was falling. My money doubled in 4 years. I learned quickly you could make or loose money in that market quickly, to me it required good advise continuously. And playing US stocks from there was directly doubly difficult with the currency issue involved.

Regard playing the markets with multiple currencies involved, i have no input for you. To me, this is playing two actions, the dominate one will be the most important one. I suspect but do not know, that the currency market right now is the dominate action. I have no ideas to help.

I do not know when US Government will draw a line, but for the moment, my wild guess is they are attempting to establish a very short term action against free fall right now, but that is only my unlearned personal observation. I am not playing in that market, so i am not even well read in it. However, we do post many articles related to that market.

John Murphy, financial guru and analyst, Today said, "My take on the situation is that the government started to sacrifice the dollar over a year ago to stem the perceived deflationary threat. They were trying to create some inflation (called relating the economy). The recent G7 meeting calling for flexible exchange rates (meaning a higher yen and a lower dollar) left little doubt that the U.S. wants a weaker dollar."

Right now, i would be afraid to make a longer term play in that arena, it looks far too risky to me. But i am not as involved in it as you are. I would defer to you to help advise me.

Maybe from what i read into your post, you might be our board's perspective in those markets. We could use so perspective there.

I agree very much with your post. Your perspectives are not my normal comments as i do not need to focus on currency. And, i am not now comfortable in that area. I am not involved in it.

Can you post every so often to give us your perspectives of playing the markets from outside the US, with the added action of currency? I would suggest, you are strong in this area as you must consider it every time you play the US market. We need these perspectives.

Your post today, is right on with what we need, please post more.

Perspective: Playing the US Markets from "XXX Country"


For background, in past years, we had a member named Datastone, who played stocks from Germany. He gave us some of those perspectives, he stepped back from the markets because from his perspective of currency related action was going counter to US stocks faster than he would risk the action in US market.

On Sept 20 in a forward forecast, on MarketViews in Fee Subscriber Services in an Issof interview of Robert Balan, a learned guru, that the US Dollar would in the October timeframe would standfast, and eventually would move forward. Among his various calls he suggested, the two currencies he would play in this environment would be, Pound Sterling, Canadian Dollar. He forecasted Euro to move from 116 to 125 in 1st Qtr 2004. (Today, Oct11 6am, it is at 118 to 100 US Dollars per my quick ck) As always you must decide for yourself.

This is picture of Robert Balan, i have quoted him on this tread from time to time. Since March when i started tracking, his track record for my interest has been better than average, i posted his Bullish market forecast in July timeframe. In my observation he has been over aggressive but on the right side of the market, for that period, i did not track his currency related forecasts. i do not subscribe to him, i subscribe to marketviews, the forecast i quoted from was in the fee section.
http://www.marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Balan/pg1.htm

An Article they titled, "US Weak Dollar Policy"
(i do not endorse this article, it is just one of the things i read while researching my reply to you)
http://www.fxcmmini.com/dollar_policy.html

They also had ont on "Japanese Intervention"
(their numbers do not appear to include the recent ones.)
http://www.fxcmmini.com/japanese_intervention.html

All ETF's Rated by Morning Star
(You can search the list on "MSCI" and see all the country ones. I click on Edit, then on Find, and enter "MSCI". You tnen get to see them one at a time.
http://screen.morningstar.com/etf/Lists/ETFStyleVolDescAllAll.html?hnav=etfAllETFs