Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[Chuckles759]

Good compilation of numbers to start twiddling with.

These are good "gross revenue" numbers. Now start introducing backwards through those "real world" supply chain costs. Every step introduces a new "cost" to the final product. Let’s start with what will/can the customer pay. But it all starts with what I call "concept to counter" - meaning taking it from an idea to selling it to the end user.

There are so many different factors that can influence pass through costs – especially insurance company amortization of costs. Then there is the spiderweb of incentive discounts, royalties, kick backs, etc that add/remove from beginning to end. Not sure how to easily represent those…so I’ll ignore them.

Oh...and don't forget governments taking their slice of the pie. No doubt there are all sort of tariffs, taxes, duties, etc that get tagged on during the process.

Let's say that the patient target cost is $1500. How much of each step will each of these buy it for, add for G&A, and then profit? And if 100% of the 1.2M vials of Leronlimab gets sold through each step.

- Manufacturing costs/markup (~$30M to make 1.2M vials… I think makes $25/vial sell price)
(Total sale: $31,000,000 / Not sure what their raw costs are, but they're making a profit.)

- CytoDyn originator ($25 cost, add 3000% markup, $750 sell)
(Cost of Goods = $31,000,00 / Sell = $900,000,000 / Profit = $869,000,000)

- Distribution costs/markup ($750 cost, add 25% markup, $940 sell)
(Cost of Goods = $900,000,000 / Sell = $1,128,000,000 / Profit = $228,000,000)

- Pharmacy costs/markup ($940 cost, add 25% markup, $1175 sell)
(Cost of Goods = $1,128,000,000 / Sell = $1,410,000,000 / Profit = $282,000,000)

- Insurance company costs/markup ($1175 cost, add 25% markup, $1475 sell)
(Cost of Goods = $1,410,000,000 / Sell = $1,770,000,000 / Profit = $360,000,000)

- Possibly doctor/hospital administering it ($1475 cost, add 10%, $1625 sell)
(Cost of Goods = $1,770,000,000 / Sell = $1,950,000,000 / Profit = $180,000,000)

- Patient pays between $1475 and $1625 per vial and potentially needs 4 vials
Total patient cost ~$2,000,000,000

Does that $2B number sound familiar to anyone for market revenue?

CytoDyn only pocketed less than $900M out of that. That’s where I’m taking my numbers from on valuating CYDY pps.

So, with a P/E of 10…that makes about $15 pps for just COVID w/600M OS.
Now I hope that everyone understands why CytoDyn needs to up their game on manufacturing Leronlimab to get those $100+ pps visions.

Now that I’ve put a target on my chest...start firing away...

-chuckles
p.s. These are my "back of the napkin Big Picture" thoughts like Black-Ops said I should do.