SLEEKSCAPE'S 2022 CANNABIS & MARIJUANA MANIA GRAND SALAMI -- PART II

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Why CBD Legalization and The CBD Mania Are Inevitable

Ever since receiving our first dose of preliminary confirmation from Jonathan Miller on April 1st signaling that 2020 may finally bring us to the finish line of this long and arduous journey, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about what it might be like on the other side of this battle

US Hemp Roundtable
@HempRoundtable
This will only change when the @FDA provides a regulatory path for the legal sale of CBD, something that they have been suggesting since 12/18 when the 2018 Farm Bill was signed. It has been taking them a long time, too long for much of the industry and many in Congress.
We are working with our supporters in Congress to pass legislation to force the @FDA to act, and there is some hope that such language may be added to a future stimulus bill.
5:38 PM · Apr 1, 2020

https://mobile.twitter.com/HempRoundtable/status/1245465601658826759


I’m a pretty competitive person and I tend to gravitate towards challenges

Trying to pinpoint the start date of this long-awaited CBD Mania has been a very serious challenge

It’s been significantly more difficult than I anticipated

Manias are a catalyst-driven phenomenon

They always have been and they always will be

They certainly don’t happen by accident

They require a highly significant positive catalyst

The past few cannabis manias we’ve witnessed (in America) have all shared one thing in common — they’ve had an actual calendar date directly attached to an enormous manic catalyst that can be summed up in 1 word

2014 — January 1 — “Colorado”

2016 — November 8 — “Election”

2018 — January 1 — “California”

2020 — June/July 2020 ??? — “CBD”

Despite the existence of these dated event-based catalysts in 2014, 2016 and 2018, all 3 of these manias were not predicted by the market

The cannabis sector before these manias began was marked by bottoming stock prices, disinterest and low volumes

There was no warning signal given

The manias all started suddenly and violently

There has been one exception to the dated catalyst paradigm

So we have seen one cannabis mania that had no calendar date attached and no enormous scheduled catalyst

That was the October 30th, 2017 Canadian Recreational MJ “Legalization” Mania, marked by a spontaneous overnight catalyst that signaled confidence in the future legalization of Recreational MJ via legislation in Canada, when Constellation Brands took a 10% stake in Canopy Growth — the mania in Canada began suddenly and violently the very next day

That’s been the only “legalization” mania we have seen in the cannabis sector thus far


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Hemp Legalization was an absolute requirement in order to achieve an environment in the cannabis sector readily conducive for a CBD Mania

Many believed that Hemp Legalization was virtually synonymous with CBD Legalization, and even though there were some questions about how the FDA would regulate CBD, because the driving reason behind Hemp’s legalization was CBD itself, there was an expectation that the FDA would employ a hands-off strategy while they worked on creating regulations for CBD

In this setting, mania formation around the CBD sector was a relatively logical outcome

The difficulty came in pinpointing the specific nature and date of the manic catalyst

Would Coca Cola confirm the rumors and publicly announce their interest in developing CBD Beverages?

Would Starbucks announce an interest in serving CBD beverages in their stores?

Would we see a mimicry of Canada in 2017, where a large beverage behemoth takes a stake in a huge CBD company, with Mile High Labs or Charlotte’s Web playing the role of Canopy Growth?

With no specific dated catalyst on the horizon, the projected CBD Mania felt most similar to The 2017 Canadian Rec MJ Mania, more likely to be triggered by a spontaneous catalyst like the ones above


— — —


Ever since Mitch McConnell singlehandedly pushed Hemp Legalization inside of The 2018 Farm Bill over the finish line on December 20th 2018, we’ve seen some small to medium-sized victories — USDA’s rapid creation of regs, USPS and FAA legalizing interstate mailing of and air travel with CBD products, the FDA not shutting down CBD stores or confiscating CBD products despite their proclamations that these products were federally illegal, and the confirmation of outsider Texan Dr. Hahn as the new FDA Commissioner

However, along with this handful of smaller victories, the time since Mitch’s legislative victory at the end of 2018 has been largely marked by a succession of negative catalysts that have greatly stifled the excitement in the CBD sector and in several instances, acted directly to delay any CBD Mania

Some of these negative catalysts have been spontaneous ones incapable of being predicted — those are the ones that hit the hardest, the real emotional downers — the vaping crisis, the FDA warning letter, the coronavirus

For some, the road has been too bumpy, too rough, too disappointing

Many have thrown in the towel, figuring that maybe this mania just isn’t meant to be

Even though I may disagree with that thought process, I can certainly understand the sentiment behind it

This has been a really tough trip

The series of negative catalysts that have hit us thus far have been undeniably devastating — though I consider myself generally optimistic and emotionally resilient, at times I’ve been left feeling like I’m living in the CBD investment version of The Twilight Zone — there’s a surreal quality to it all

All that being said, despite the improbable run of negative catalysts that have bombarded us, after discounting their emotional impacts on my own psyche as an investor, none of them have changed my mind on the inevitability of the CBD Mania, simply because all of the conditions necessary for mania development remain firmly in place

Cannabis manias are never sparked by investors who are already invested in the sector, which has always been in a beaten-down state before the mania strikes — but by a new wave of investors who are attracted to the sector by the manic catalyst — these investors haven’t paid their dues like we have — but that’s okay, because they will become the spark that lights the flame in the CBD sector, so we should be grateful for their arrival

Now let’s take a moment to look back at what’s transpired before we look ahead to the future

After Mitch singlehandedly pushed federal hemp legalization across the finish line in Congress in December 2018, and before we were hit over the head with our trio of spontaneous consecutive negative catalysts not directly related to the CBD sector — the vaping crisis, impeachment, and the coronavirus — there was the government shutdown, the false but repetitive media headlines of an FDA crackdown, and the unexpected departure of FDA Commissioner Gottlieb with the subsequent installation of Sharpless as the interim FDA Commissioner

The final pair of negative catalysts we’ve endured include the alarmist FDA Warning Letter and the long delay in the deliverance of the FDA Report On CBD to Congress

That’s 8 negative catalysts in 15 months

No wonder it feels like we’ve been put through the wringer

This slew of negative catalysts has changed the mechanistics surrounding the initiation of any theoretical CBD Mania — the idea of a spontaneous catalyst triggering the mania was killed off by the FDA Crackdown Fallacy peddled incessantly by the national media last year — as a result, the most rational formula for the development of a CBD Mania in 2020 involves legislation and/or regulation, CBD Legalization from Congress and/or FDA Enforcement Discretion, both of which would result in national sales of CBD products

Even though this string of negative catalysts has changed the most likely formula for the development of a CBD Mania and has resulted in successively higher doses of emotional pain while we wait for Congress and the FDA to get their $hit together, if we look at all 8 of these negative catalysts and their outcomes through an objective lens, they haven’t changed the inevitability of the CBD Mania


#1 Government Shutdown — Jan 2019

Inability to pass annual budget led to a 5-week government shutdown at the very start of 2019

Lost momentum from Hemp Legalization in December 2018

Emotional Pain Rating: 3

End Result: Doesn’t change inevitability of CBD Mania


#2 False and Repetitive Media Headlines Stoking Fear Of FDA Crackdown On CBD — Feb/Mar/April 2019

CBD Products have been out there for nearly 18 months since FDA took over regulatory authority in January 2019, and not only haven’t they removed any products from shelves, but since Dr. Hahn took over the FDA in December 2019 he has made it very clear that there isn’t going to be any crackdown

Emotional Pain Rating: 7

End Result: Doesn’t change inevitability of CBD Mania


#3 Sudden Departure of FDA Commish Dr. Gottlieb and Arrival of Interim FDA Commish Dr. Sharpless — April/May/June/July/August/Sept/Oct/Nov 2019

This left us with lame-duck interim Commissioner Dr. Sharpless, who literally did nothing to advance CBD regulations during his tenure, which lasted through most of 2019 — this actually turned out to be the predominant source of the inaction and delay in the FDA’s development of regulations for CBD in 2019

If Dr. Gottlieb never left the FDA, we very well could have seen the CBD Mania occur 12 months earlier, in the Summer/Fall of 2019:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=150282255

Emotional Pain Rating: 8

End Result: Doesn’t change inevitability of CBD Mania


#4 The Vaping Crisis — Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov 2019

Thousands of Americans mysteriously developed severe lung injuries as a result of using vaping devices, which were left completely unregulated by the FDA

This really stung because CBD products had nothing to do with the vaping crisis and were simply an innocent bystander purely due to being in the same unregulated category as vaping products — the real culprit didn’t even turn out to be vaping or CBD, but Vitamin E Acetate found in black market THC Oil vapes

This led to Congressional hearings where Congress berated the FDA for months, because the former FDA Commissioner (Dr. Gottlieb) had spoken very strongly and openly about wanting to regulate the vaping industry and ban certain vaping products, but the FDA never followed through on it

The FDA found itself in an indefensible position and bore the brunt of the blame for this public health crisis, which claimed the lives of 68 people and resulted in over 2500 lung injuries

I’m convinced that had we not experienced the vaping crisis, we wouldn’t have experienced the FDA’s reaction to the vaping crisis, which turned out to be the next negative catalyst

Emotional Pain Rating: 9

End Result: Doesn’t change inevitability of CBD Mania


#5 The FDA Warning Letter About CBD Products — Nov 2019

In a very uncharacteristic fashion, seemingly in response to the vaping crisis, the FDA published an overly alarmist cover-your-ass warning letter about CBD products, telling Americans that they could be injured by using unregulated CBD products

The timing of this warning letter was very unfortunate because the fear from the vaping crisis had receded markedly by this point, and Jonathan Miller had stated 3 weeks earlier that the legislative plan was to legalize CBD in Dietary Supplements and Foods in the end of year appropriations bill

Likely as a direct result of the FDA Warning Letter, Mitch decided to pull back on legalizing CBD products in the year-end funding bill

So had the vaping crisis never occurred, it is very doubtful that this FDA Warning Letter on CBD would have been published, and we very well could have seen our CBD Legalization Mania begin in December 2019

Emotional Pain Rating: 9.5

End Result: Doesn’t change inevitability of CBD Mania


#6 House Impeachment and Senate Trial — Dec 2019/Jan 2020

Senator Crapo had spoken about moving the Senate’s version of The SAFE Banking Act out of his Senate Banking Committee and onto the Senate Floor in January 2020

The SAFE Banking Act was thought to be the standalone legislative vehicle to which CBD Legalization and Enforcement Discretion could be attached

The CBD Mania was therefore slated to begin in the Winter of 2020, but the impeachment postponed this possibility

Emotional Pain Rating: 7

End Result: Doesn’t change inevitability of CBD Mania


#7 The Novel Coronavirus — Feb/March/April/May/June 2020

As if we haven’t already suffered an unbelievable string of spontaneous negative catalysts since Mitch passed federal hemp legalization through Congress in December 2018, a once-in-a-century pandemic strikes as the Senate was getting ready to start moving legislation again after the conclusion of the impeachment trial

You couldn’t make up another spontaneous negative catalyst more horrific than this one

I consider myself very fortunate as I haven’t lost anybody close to me thus far, but one of my family members has lost a close friend and a good friend of mine has lost a co-worker

To anybody who hasn’t been as fortunate, my condolences go out to you

@#$& you Covid-19

Emotional Pain Rating: 10

End Result: Doesn’t change inevitability of CBD Mania


#8 Long delay of 7-8 months in the deliverance of the FDA Report On CBD to Congress — March 2020

Congress was purportedly waiting for the FDA Report on CBD to be sent to them before taking up any legislation on CBD

It was originally said to be published by mid-summer 2019

It didn’t arrive until March 5th 2020

Emotional Pain Rating: 8

End Result: Doesn’t change inevitability of CBD Mania


So what’s the upshot of running through this gauntlet of negative catalysts, none of which served to change the inevitability of the CBD Mania?

If none of these roadblocks, booby traps, sneak attacks and nuclear bombs have been able to stop the CBD Legalization Movement, then it’s pretty doubtful at this point that anything has the power to stop it

Some things are just meant to happen

Destiny is the end of a journey whose conclusion is so highly probable that despite whatever obstacles may arise along the way, any delay in getting there is only a temporary phenomenon


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