Taylor Morrison Home Corp (TMHC)

[ErnieBilco]

Summary
Recent increase in employment levels in May 2020 with the 13% decline in non-farm employment is inadequate to reverse upward filtering that motivated high-cost housing demand between 2014-2018.

Approximately a third of the 44 million renting households in the United States could not pay their April-May rents on time in spite of the $1,200 payout.

The 2.5 homes/ day sold by TMHC did not factor in the market time spent before sale. This measure is inadequate to correctly predict sales into the FY 2020/2021.

To maintain their credit standing and reduce bad debts for business and home loans, banks are purchasing small layers of Collateralized Loan/ Debt Obligations (CLOs) and CDOs.

Taylor Morrison Home Corp. (NYSE: TMHC) plummeted 2.58% in post-market trading on June 8, 2020. There has been uncertainty among investors and analysts on whether the Federal Reserve will maintain the interest rate to zero or in the negative range on June 10, 2020. With the rates, now at historic lows, home-buyers have a good purchasing opportunity. As it turned out, the Fed's range of the funds rates were maintained at 0-0.25%.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the month of May had seen an increase in construction employment by 464,000 after losing 995,000 in April. The biggest earners were the specialty trade contractors at 325,000 while the job growth was equally split between residential and non-residential sectors. However, the residential buildings took a larger share of +105,000 units showing the positive outlook among home builders in the US. However, while builders are predicting a booming business, the outlook in terms of capital availability, mortgages are indicative of a gloomy environment. In fact, the FOMC predicted a further contraction of the economy by 6.5% in 2020.

Thesis
Despite the share price soaring more than 23% at the beginning of June, TMHC's build-to-rent rent strategy may not realize benefits this year. Also, the growth in net sales is a mirage that may not be sustained by the current fiscal outlook.